How Ukraine's Crimea strategy is making Putin's war 'futile'

Russian attacks continue to strike fear around Ukraine's capital.Seven people were killed in a suburb of Kiev on Monday.29 others were injured, including four emergency responders.Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military says it struck Russia's largest oil refinery more than 1 ,500 miles from Ukraine's border.That strike could worsen growing gas shortages in almost all of Russia's 83 regions.Kiev's pressure campaign is also targeting the highly contested Crimean Peninsula.

CNN's Nick Payton Walsh has the latest.

Ukraine is hitting Russia hard where it all began.Occupied Crimea.Taken first in 2014, it is a peninsula and that makes it very vulnerable to being cut off.There are two ways in or out.First is the Kerch Bridge, which Ukraine has been hitting for years and it's now beset by queues of thousands of anxious Russians trying to get out.Second is the land bridge through occupied Ukraine.

Many saw this as a big strategic gain from Russia's invasion in 2022, a way to cheaply and permanently connect Russia to this tourist mecca, the jewel of the Soviet past.Ukraine's 2023 counter -offensive tried to break through here, but failed, hitting huge Russian defences.Now they're flying over them new mid -range Ukrainian drone capability, striking the road along the land bridge and Crimea's air defences, leaving it vulnerable.And then the actual bridges to Crimea and the Russian trains and the roads.Now they're hitting ordinary infrastructure, refineries, power stations, meaning power cuts in the cities.She used a gas station's thick black smoke on the skyline, so yeah.

more Russians are leaving.Zelensky recently claimed that Russia has had to prioritise air defences in Crimea and around Moscow as well.Putin has recently accepted economic challenges and indeed gas shortages, as Ukraine's drone strikes increasingly cause chaos in ordinary Russian life.So what's the goal here?Make Crimea hard to live in, a place without tourists, gas, power, affordable food, and the land bridge to it, already itself a tough place to live in, seems less worth the cost.And this is the wider point for Kiev.

Seize on the growing questions inside Russia as to what the war is even for.If Crimea is effectively uninhabitable and the only gains they can claim are tiny bits of land, usually rubble, in the Donbass.turn Crimea from a jewel in Putin's crown to leverage for Ukraine, perhaps in any future peace talks, or even into a damaging thorn in Putin's side as he tries to navigate growing dissent about his war of choice.

President Zelensky has made a fresh plea for more air defense missiles.Whatever NATO allies decide will be key to Ukraine's ability to protect its skies.But it's also happening as Russia, too, is seeing increasing losses of both territory and of troops.Michael Kauffman is a military analyst and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.In his latest article for Foreign Affairs, he describes this moment as an inflection point for Russia, which could shape its long -term military strategy.You're also right that Keeve's strategy of making this war futile for Russia is working.

And I'd like to ask you to elaborate on that, specifically as it relates to what we're seeing in Crimea, where you have Russian -installed authorities now declaring a state of emergency.We have blackouts, fuel reserved for the state there on shortages.The Kerch Bridge has been choked off, a real blockade happening at what has been a crown jewel for Vladimir Putin.Is this the point that you are trying to make, just one example of Ukraine's strategy right now?

Yeah, absolutely.There are several parts to Ukraine's strategy.The first is stabilizing the front line, and they've done a good job of that, especially since in recent months they've really gone after longer -range strikes into Russian operational depth and have choked off Russian logistics.And so the Russian offensive effort has stalled for many months now.Another one is isolating Crimea and using that as a pressure point.Crimea now has a real energy and fuel crisis there under the belief that Moscow cares a lot more about Crimea than it might care about many other regions of Ukraine that it's trying to occupy, and essentially using that also to gain leverage.

And lastly is a deep strike campaign into Russia, targeting Russian energy export infrastructure, Russian fuel refineries, Russia's undergoing a fuel crisis with long lines at the gas stations across the country, and also key nodes in the Russian defense industry to reduce the Russian production of missiles and various strike drones.

And despite all of these challenges that Russia is facing, you yourself described them as visibly struggling.You also say they can reconstitute into a major threat in five to seven years.What do you base that timeline on?

Sure.And there are active debates.I mean, NATO actually often pegs it to a much shorter timeline within only a few years after the Russia -Ukraine war.And the reality is that the debates on how long it will take Russia to reconstitute are really narcissism of small differences.At the end of the day, in defense planning terms, anything less than 10 years is a rather short timeline.And what I base it on is the assumption of how long it might take Russia after this war.

Even though its military has been degraded, although it also has expanded and improved in other ways, to regain the ability to functionally employ that force on a larger scale.Right now, Russia after the war may be able to conduct all sorts of small or limited type scenarios that might threaten NATO members.But the thing that should really concern the alliance is a large scale invasion or large scale assault on one of its member states.And for that, I think it might take a bit longer.But that said, the important point is that even though the Russian military has been degraded, it is likely to reconstitute.We're not debating the if so much as we are only debating the when.

Joining me now is Ukrainian Parliament member Kyra Rudyk, and she joins us now, as I said, from Kyiv.Good to see you.I am wondering what you believe President Zelensky can achieve at this NATO summit, because I don't have to remind you, the United States itself may be low on those interceptors.So what does Ukraine need to get from this NATO summit right now?

Hello, Paula, and thank you so much for having me.As you said yourself, it is critical for Ukraine to get the interceptors, as right now Russia outpaces the United States in production of the ballistic missiles against the production of the anti -ballistic missiles that we desperately need.What President Zelensky can get there is additional support and at least promises.of the delivery of the missiles that we need, but also to continue on the discussions that we have heard started in Paris regarding getting the technology to produce the Patriot missile systems to Ukraine so we can at some point produce them ourselves and strategically be able to defend ourselves in the future.That would be a life changer and a game changer for us.And because we obviously understand that the situation when there is not enough of those missiles in the world is critical for us and gives Russia unnecessary leverage at this point.

You know, and I do know that in fact,Do you worry that Ukrainians should brace themselves for so much more escalation now?I mean, watching those civilian targets overnight in Ukraine, and it's been the case for several weeks now, it can't be easy.

It's not easy, Paula.But what is the alternative?What is the option?Unfortunately, the real peace deal or the real ceasefire was never at the table.If you look at Russia's actions and not listen to what Putin says, trying to fool President Trump, the truth is Russia never intended to stop.They have started a full -scale invasion, and they continue terrorizing our peaceful cities because they do not have real gains at the front line.

And they will continue doing that no matter what we do.The only thing that we can do for ourselves is to fight back, to brace ourselves, and again, find a way to defend our people.And this has been a case for us.since the day one because Russia would not stop unless they are stopped.We have proved that by the fact and we are hoping that finally the leaders of the world will realize that.

I'm wondering what you believe Russians themselves may realize.Obviously, arguably, Russians do not have any influence over what Vladimir Putin does.But have you seen any indication that it might be the Russian people themselves that would be just so fatigued with this war now that it is on their doorstep?

Russian propaganda is very strong and Russians in their majority support the war.We can see that by their social media, but also we can see that by the progress of Russian army being supported and added with new recruits.So we have no hope that at some point Russians will rebel.But what we have hope that Putin's inner circle may become less supportive of the war and create the political instability that may pressure Putin into ending the war or at least agreeing to a ceasefire.Coming back to the Patriot missile systems, Paula, I think it's important to mention that it's not the only way of producing more of them.We can pressure Putin to produce less of the ballistic missiles.

And for that, sanctions need to actually start working.Because right now, the majority of the ballistic missile is made of the Western components that four and a half years into the sanctions are still somehow being delivered to Russia, becoming a part of the deadly weapons that are coming our way.So this is another way of working with it, and I hope that President Zelensky is bringing up it to President Trump.

Yeah, the sanctions at times have proven ineffective, even though even European countries have promised to get tougher with those sanctions.Kiarorada, good to see you again, and we'll leave it there for now.Thanks so much.