Can Iran Defeat US & Israel In This war? Will Putin Back Tehran? | The GD Bakshi Podcast

On a day when United States and Israel have started raining bombs on Iran, I am joined by Major General GD Bakshi. He is a war gaming expert and what a better day to join us, sir. And there could not have been a better situation, probably not a good time for Iran. Where do you think this is heading?

Look, let's just see a bit of background. January this year, the CIA, the Mossad, the MI6, they'd all gotten together to do economic decapitation strike on Iran. They had hit the Iranian currency to an extent that $1 was getting equivalent to 1,60,000 rials. The aim was to hit the economy, Iranian economy so hard that the people would be absolutely

fed up and angry and be out in the streets. And they had succeeded to a large extent. The aim was to create a colored revolution in Iran, you know, based upon which the Iranian regime would be overthrown. Now, the standard technique for a colored revolution, to stop a colored revolution, is to jam the internet. The Chinese know this.

The Russians know this. And this is what they had told. And the Americans, the CIA, et cetera, Mossad had catered for this. It is said that about 30, 30 to 40,000 Starlink terminals of Elon Musk had been smuggled into Iran so that they could continue, you know, you know,

communicating with their agents, with their agent provocateurs, etc., etc. This is where the Russians intervened. They jammed the Starlink terminals. They have the capability to monitor their conversations. And with the help of that, they were able to uproot the Israeli intelligence network, Mossad, CIA networks. And over a period of just about two weeks, the Iranians had crushed this revolt.

Now the plan was that they would have a mass uprising against the Iranian regime. There would be a regime change and to hasten it along, the Americans and the Israelis would stage a coup de grace, you know, a final clinching operation. And with the help of which, you know, they would say, wow, wow, jeet gaye, jeet gaye, you know, a final clinching operation. And with the help of which, you know, they would say,

wa wa jeet gaye jeet gaye, you know. And it would be Venezuela redux. Repeat Venezuela. They forgot a small little detail. And that detail was, Venezuela is famous for producing, you know, Miss Universes, Miss World's, Beauty Queens. They're not really renowned for fighting. And the CIA had sent in billions and billions of dollars worth of bribes that purchased half the country. And they were able to take out Maduro without much ado.

Just one American wounded and one helicopter hit. That's about all. But saying that Iran, you could do the same to Iran, from the military demand picture point of view was a tough call, was a tough call. No, no one less than General Dan Carl, you know, who has gone on record. He briefed Donald Trump, and I believe the briefings that were leaked to the press, to

Washington Post and the others, he's supposed to have told him, we are ready to do whatever you order. But the but is that there could be significant American casualties, number one. It would, number two, have a very, very deleterious impact on the ammunition stockpiles, weapon stockpiles, interceptor, missile interceptor stockpiles of the United States.

Iran is a huge country.

When you see the map, it's not easy to…

It is a country with 90 billion people, and it is a huge country. When you see the map, it's not easy to… It is a country with 90 billion people and it is a very rugged terrain.

Rugged terrain.

So it's not some kind of a joke, you see. And then they are a fighting people.

They are fighters.

You know, they… and they are… they have been known to take on, you know, suicidal missions in the past. Eight years they fought Saddam Hussein, eight years. And the kind of losses they took, they were able to bear is utterly, their capacity to take punishment has been amazing. They've withstood sanctions for almost 48 years and not buckled, you see.

So the fact of the matter is Iran was a separate cup of tea altogether, right? And to cap it all, when the Mossad found that their colored revolution had failed, it is Netanyahu who picked up the phone and he rang up Donald Trump, don't do it now, don't do it. You don't have adequate far power, the colored revolution has failed. The Iranian regime is strong and intact, it's not going down anywhere. You don't have adequate far power, the colored revolution has failed.

The Iranian regime is strong and intact, it's not going down anywhere." And then he visited Washington and he said, I'm not ready right now because last time, in June last year, twelve-day war, Iran had fired about five-hundred-and-fifty missiles, you know, at Israel. And in those 550 missiles, the level of damage inflicted was $50 billion. It was blanked out of the press, etc., etc. But they were able to hit very hard. And it was Israel which was forced to call for a ceasefire. Right? So, this time they had said, look, with the force level

that you have got, you've got only one aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln, in the Gulf. That's not adequate. Because if Israel has to be protected with the help of Patriot missiles, third missiles to stop the Iranian missiles from coming in.

Then that incoming storm of missiles, then we need more force levels. And therefore, America pretended to get into talks with Iran over the nuclear deal, et cetera, which is a very familiar trick they have employed even last time. Last time they had done the same thing, pretended to go for talks and started the bombing, to achieve surprise.

What are the options for Tehran now?

You know, before we go for options for Tehran, what were the options of the American-Israeli combined? The options were that they were worried that Iran might preempt. That was the most dangerous scenario for Israel, that Iran might preempt. That was the most dangerous scenario for Israel, that Iran might preempt.

So therefore, they said option one, Iran preempts, option two, Israel preempts, option three, the United States and Israel together preempt. Their preferred option was America and Israel put together. Now, what we have seen is Iran was not keen to preempt because then the entire blame would have come on Iran in the court of public opinion, global public opinion,

Iran would have been blamed. So Iran waited for the first strike. There was no chance of strategic surprise or operational level surprise. But they have achieved tactical surprise by mixing it with the talks. They have again managed to achieve tactical surprise. Israel started with a decapacitation strike. It is said they have killed the Iranian

army chief of staff. They attacked the palace of the president, Pazishkian. They attacked the Iranian intelligence headquarter. They have attacked the Isfahan facility where the International Atomic Energy Commission has said that Iran, all the 60% enriched uranium, 600 kgs of it, it had taken out from Natanz

and had hidden them in a deeply buried facility in Isfahan, in Isfahan. So initially, we thought that Israel had gone in alone. Don't forget that in last year, 12-day war, they had… Israel had started and then America came in towards the end. Interviewer 1 – Towards the fag end. Towards the fag end. Therefore, it was thought

that America might again let Iran, sorry, Israel start and then come in towards the end. But it looks like it has been a joint attack. President Donald Trump has gone up on American television to the effect that Iran has been constantly doing damage to the United States, death to America, chanting, etc. And that we are, you know, the time has come to now, you know, destroy the Iranian regime, which is a threat to the global security.

A nuclear arm, Iran is a threat to America, Israel, their missiles are a threat to the global security, a nuclear arm, Iran is a threat to America, Israel, their missiles are a threat to America, Israel. They had laid down clear red lines. No nuclear enrichment, missiles, all missiles over 300 kilometer range, you will destroy. No help to Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis.

Now, you are virtually asking Iran to lay down its arms without fighting. Iran was, I mean, there was not a chance in hell of Iran ever doing that. But the entire aim of these so-called negotiations was to gain a justification to attack Iran.

Look, we've tried, we tried talks, it didn't work.

Do you think America is winning that justification? Are they winning the public opinion?

The battle of the narrative.

Yeah.

You see, you're so right. In today's modern warfare, even more important than winning the battle on the land, sea, air, cyberspace, outer space is the battle of the narrative. So, you have to paint your enemy, you know, you say, you must say that it is a just war.

It is a last resort option. Look, we tried talking and they didn't behave, etc., etc. So you are trying to get a pretext to attack. And that is precisely what they have done. The point at issue is Iran's counter strategy is simple. They know militarily they are no match

for the America Israel combined. Correct. And some NATO countries could also join it. Correct. You know, Britain has refused and the others have refused, but they could also join it.

So Iran knows that it cannot win. But the Iranian strategy can be summed up in that Urdu phrase. Hum toh doobege Sanam, tumko bhi le doobege. We'll go down, but we'll take you down with us. So what was the Iranian strategy? Iran has 3,000 missiles. About half of them are medium range ballistic

missiles like Fateh-1, Fateh-300, you know, Khorramsheh, Shahbab, etc., etc., Idlis. These are the medium range missiles, 1,500 to 2,500 kilometers range. And they have almost about 2000 of them. Then they have short range ballistic missiles. You know, which are hit on American bases.

They have also probably got some underwater tunnels to strike US warships.

They have underwater tunnels to block the Gulf of Hormuz entrance 21 miles wide mouth of the Gulf of Hormuz. They've got coastal batteries, right? So, the Israeli, sorry, the Iranian strategy was that the moment you hit us, we will not do a proportionate response like last time. We will go all out. We will hit Israel with medium range ballistic missile, hypersonic ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles. Now, please bear in mind that in Ukraine, American patriots, American thugs,

have not been able to stop the hypersonic cruise missiles. Russian missiles, Oceanics. They can change direction. They are not a ballistic trajectory, which the computer can predict and knock out. Right? The Orsinik is one example. The Kinzhal, the Iskander, all of them are hypersonic.

They have not been able to stop these. So, the fact of the matter is that even in last June, a number of Iranian missiles had gotten through and done pretty severe damage, which quite obviously the American media controls the global media and the media narrative. So, they were saying nothing happened, nothing happened. But the fact of the matter is about 50 billion worth of damage was done to Israel by the Iranian missile arsenal. So, now the question is, the question is that they would fire off missiles towards Israel. They have already struck at Haifa. –They have already started. They have attacked first. Instead of

attacking Israel first, they attacked the American bases in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar. And now I believe even Saudi Arabia. Because they had warned them all. Any country which permits America to use its bases or airspace is fair game.

So, they made it clear that it won't be limited to Israel or US. It will be complete.

It has already become a regional war. It has already become a regional war. Then the Israeli, the Iranian proxies, that is, the Houthis, the Hezbollah and the Hamas, I mean, they have all started saying, the Houthis have said, we will close the Gulf of, I mean, the Red Sea. They will close the Red Sea. Now, Iran's strategy is to hit the American bases, to hit the American aircraft carriers, oblique warships. Please don't forget that on any aircraft carrier, there are 5,000 American sailors.

Even if half of them go down, Donald Trump's political career is sunk. This is a midterm election year. Right? And you know something very interesting. When the Americans had sailed in the aircraft carrier battle group, the Abraham Lincoln with one aircraft carrier and three destroyers, AGs, Arleigh Burke class destroyers into the Gulf of Hormuz. The Iranians had said we will use the Chinese supersonic cruise missiles, the C-304s, to sink the aircraft carrier. We will fire hundreds of drones onto it. You know, supersaturate the air defenses and then hit it with, you know, land to sea anti-ship missiles, hit

it with, you know, cruise missiles, hypersonic and ballistic missiles, hypersonic. Do you know that the Americans were so worried that they took the Abraham Lincoln out of the Gulf of Hormuz, 800 kilometers away to this side?

It is no longer in the Gulf of Hormuz, 800 kilometers away to this side.

It is no longer in the Gulf of Hormuz. That is how seriously they took this threat. But three American Arleigh Burke class destroyers who are armed, which are armed with the Patriot missiles and you know, the third kind of missile to stop Iranian missiles.

They are still deployed in the Gulf of Hormuz because they have to protect the American bases.

USS Gerard Ford also landed in the east of Israel yesterday.

When Netanyahu got very worried that Iranian missile capability had not been degraded, command and control had not been degraded. They asked America to send in another aircraft carrier battle group. The Ford, which was operating against the peninsula for the last six months, and their sailors were sick and tired.

They wanted a break. They were ordered to sail all the way from Venezuela and they are now off the Haifa port of Iran. Their primary task is to protect Iran from…

Israel from…

Protect Israel from Iranian missiles. Right? And it has moved there. You must have heard those funny stories that their toilets are blocked.

Yes, yes.

They have only 600 toilets for 5000 sailors.

They want a repair.

And there were some reports in the media that American sailors were shoving their t-shirts and their mops down to block because they were fed up. They wanted a break. Six months non-stop. I mean, soldiers need a break. If you send tired soldiers into battle, you are asking for a problem from the outset.

So, this ship was stopped en route in Greece. The ship was stopped en route in Greece so that they could have a break. Go and do their toilets outside on land. You know. –So, Dmitry Medvedev has come up with a very strong tweet saying that

the Persian empire is not going to bow down and Persian Empire, they have existed from eternity.

So… –The Russians have already sent their battleships to Bandar Abbas, to Chabahar. –Okay. The Chinese have sent their missile destroyers, guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates to do joint exercises with Iran. There are media reports to the extent that they have given them the C-302 anti-ship missiles, that they have given them their three-dimensional radars, which can pick up the stealth aircraft.

And that they have developed an integrated system in which they have integrated Russian S-200, S-300 missiles with the Chinese radars and communication system. So let's see how much more effective this will be. Quite obviously, so far, it looks like the American electronic warfare capabilities have been able to suppress, suppress fairly well the Israeli, sorry, the Iranian air defences. Right?

You think Putin will allow Trump's Dadagiri, you can call it. That's what he has been doing. It's so close to, it's in Middle East and it's not far away from like India, Russia. You think Putin will allow Trump's Dadagiri in Iran as well, like they have done in Venezuela?

You see, the Americans, you know, Venezuela is their backyard. Both Russia and China seem to have decided it is pointless taking on America in its own backyard 7000 km from our shores. I mean, it doesn't make military sense. So, they let Venezuela go down. Right? But Iran is not America's backyard. You know, America has had to sail 7000 kilometers there, USS Gerald Ford. So it's neither China's backyard, nor America, nor China's. It is open ground, but it is a very valuable piece

of strategic space. 30% of the world's oil comes from here. It goes through the Gulf of Hormuz. 30% of China's oil comes from here. It goes through the Gulf of Hormuz. 30% of China's oil comes from Iran. So how much will China absorb? China was buying a lot of oil from Venezuela that has been stopped by America. Now they're trying to stop America, China's oil coming

from Iran and 30% of this thing. So both these nations have decided to pay back America in its own coin. America has been helping Ukraine. Europe has been helping Ukraine, arming them, giving sharing intelligence. They say we'll do the same tit for tat. Quid pro quo. Are the Chinese warships also zeroing in? Not only Chinese warships, there is that research vessel that tracks American ships. Chinese satellites are tracking American ships. They have given their vidya GPS system for guidance.

Otherwise, the Iranians were forced to use the GPS of the Americans, which the Americans

switch off.

Correct.

They blocked almost entire internet. So, this time it's going to be not like repetition of May, June last year. You know, when is, when actually Iran was feeling very proud and it had refused Chinese and American help. This time they have suffered and they know, they are taking their help fully. So, with that, with Chinese missile, with Chinese satellites giving data on American battleships, if they take down one aircraft carrier, let us say they don't take down an aircraft carrier, they take down an Arleigh Burke class destroyer. An Arleigh Burke class destroyer has a crew of 250 to 300 sailors. One ship down.

And let me tell you that Donald Trump can kiss his midterm elections goodbye. He will be a lame duck president. Don't be too surprised then if he gets impeached. It would be the, he is torpedoing his own political career because of hubris,

because Iran is not Venezuela. And he's got this false bravado, all these people, his councils, all these people, Marco Rubio, Pete Hexhead with no experience, no councils, all these people, Marco Rubio, P. Tech, with no experience, no wisdom, I think, these are his biggest advisors these days.

You see, when you have an autocratic leadership, that is the greatest pitfall of an autocratic leadership. Nobody wants to tell the boss the truth. Because he doesn't like to hear the truth. He is not told the truth. I'm told he does just doesn't listen to briefings. Now, his own chief of staff, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Cain, had told him that there are chances of casualties, there are chances of this. So he said, no, this is fake news. That is the rest. And now

he's ordered the attack. Some people are. And now he's ordered the attack. Some people are speculating that he's ordered the attack to keep the Epstein files outside the headlines. And if that is your motivation to kill so many people, then I don't think the gods of war will be very happy with such a person. Donald Trump dodged the draft.

It was his turn to fight. He didn't fight in Vietnam. And yet he's pushing people to one battle after another battle after another battle. And he was hoping that it would be a very cheap, very easy victory, despite his chairman, chiefs of staff,

telling him that it is not likely to be. Israeli intelligence reports have clearly indicated that the American missile stockpiles are doing adequate only for five days of intense conflict and for seven to 10 days of low intensity conflict.

So that also indicates that this might just be a short term, maybe a day or two days of strike or.

No, no, you could have gotten away with day or two days of strike, providing Iran hadn't

retaliated.

Retaliated, yes.

Last time Iran had done a very proportionate strike. They said, OK, you hit Natanz, we will empty the airbase first. That was Noora Kushti. You see. And then they said, we will hit your Udayad airbase, empty it. Correct. They informed him basically, come here. It was, you know, Noora Kushti, which they had. Correct. So, it was a fixed match. Fixed match. This time it is not going to be a fixed match because Iran knows They are going for its juggler. If not today, tomorrow it will have to fight

It might as well fight now when it is prepared. It is pre-warned. It is more It has made up a lot of its losses that it suffered last June. The Chinese, the Russians have helped it They are sharing intelligence. And with that intelligence sharing, then it's like payback for Ukraine.

Where does that leave Erdogan and also India?

You see, India was in a bit of a cleft stick because we are friendly both with Iran as well as with Israel. The simple fact is Israel has stood by us in every single war. And they have shared their cutting edge military technology, cyber technology with us. So, Israel is a very dear friend. But then we also have good relations with Iran traditionally.

Correct. –Because they have helped us against Pakistan. They have helped us to reach out to Afghanistan. They have helped us to reach out to Central Asia. So quite obviously we need Iran too.

Ancient ties.

We, I would say we are the best placed people to try and get a ceasefire or to try and get this conflict to end. We are better better placed.

You think India can pay a mediation role?

Because I think after a few days, all sides would be keen for a ceasefire. All sides would be.

I think all this bravado that Donald Trump used to say, I stopped Iran, Pakistan, India, Pakistan war and all that is probably Modi will be becoming the peacemaker. Yes.

We could pay back that compliment because, correctly speaking, it's only India, which is very well up with both the sides. I mean, has good relations with Iran, has good relations with…-Israel and US. Relations with Iran was slightly, you know, there was a bit of a hitch because they captured one of our ships and on which there were about 17 sailors. They, despite our request, they have released only eight. So in retaliation, then India captured three of their ships which are transporting oil

to Pakistan. Right? And that's the only way to get your people back. Aap hamare do, hamare ek haath se do, ek haath se lo. Maybe that was the thing, this thing. There were some criticism that maybe Prime Minister Modi should not have gone to Israel just before this start of this war. But be that as it may, he said nothing about Iran-Israel war from there. His statements were very correct, politically correct. And the second thing is we've signed

a number of deals. Because we now need the help of Israel if we have to deal with the Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia axis. So we also need Israel's help. About 16 deals and contracts have been signed. They are going to give us rampage missiles, ice missiles, and also the sunflower missiles kind of a thing, AI software for scanning terrorist faces from planes and helicopters, etc.

Cyber security software, etc. A lot of things we are going in for joint manufacture. Drones, advanced drones. Where does that leave Turkey now? Turkey can yak all that it wants. It does not have the guts to take on Israel. And quite obviously it's not going to fight with the United States of America. It will stay out. It will stay out of this fight maximum. It will give moral support, verbal support. But what Turkey is worried about is chaos in the region.

If a nation-state like Iran gets destroyed, look at the refugee flows that will go into Turkey first and all chaos all over the area, they'll flow into Europe, they'll flow into Turkey. We can't have a Syria kind of a situation. It's too big a country to nation to create. Situation, and then what follows next? When Iraq collapsed, we had the ISIS. What will happen when Iran collapses, if it collapses?

So the thing is, as a military analyst, I'm sticking my neck out and saying that, yes, Iran will go down. But it will do a lot of damage before it goes down. And it's only saving grace for Iran is that we will cause so much political and economic damage

that you will be forced to call it off. If it closes the states of Hormuz, the price of oil can rise to $120 to $150 a barrel. Yesterday, it had reached $76 a barrel from $60. $76 a barrel already, and climbing.

One day.

And today, you see what happens by tomorrow morning.

Monday, when the Monday market opens.

See what happens by tomorrow morning. You see, so the fact of the, that is why this attack was done, coincided with the weekend. Last American attack was also coincided with the weekend because it won't hit the stock markets very hard.

It would give them some time to, you know, absorb the shock. But the simple fact of the matter is that Iran has a whole matrix of options, which it has already started using. It has hit the American bases in Bahrain, UAE, Qatar,

and Saudi Arabia. It will, I think, has already hit, or by now should have hit.

I think six or seven targets in Riyadh, in Abu Dhabi, in Bahrain. There are two, three more cities.

We were expecting that they would hit Israel first. But they have hit America first. And Israel also, it is just a, I'm sure, a number of some of them have already landed. Haifa, some of them already have landed. But this is just the beginning.

So they will try and supersaturate with drones to confuse the air defenses, air defense systems. Supersaturate with drones, then going for missiles, going for hypersonic missiles, going for mass scale bombardments. The first attack is always a cyber attack. So the cyber attack must have disrupted their missile firing, et cetera.

But now I think they will overcome it. And tomorrow, day after, day, day after, my reckoning is that Iran is going to hit back. Yes, it will get hit very hard. No doubt, it will get hit very hard. But there will be a price to pay. And the simple question that the Americans have to answer is, politically, are they prepared to pay the price

of body bags in a midterm election year? Don't forget that in an American opinion poll, 80% of Americans did not want a war with Iran. 80% did not want a war with Iran. Approval ratings of President Trump are down to 30%, between 30 and 40%.

So I think he's made a mistake. It is an overreach for which America could pay a heavy price in terms of reputational cost. You know, your military, you keep hitting fancy states like Venezuela, Afghanistan, Libya.

Without any repercussions.

Iraq.

You can do it without repercussions. You saw the repercussions in Vietnam. And you've seen the repercussions even in Iraq and Afghanistan. The amount of treasure and lives that you had to plot that you had to pay.

So if this one, there are certain American military analysts, like McGregor, Colonel McGregor, and a number of them have been saying, CIA analysts have been saying, this could lead to heavy casualties. And there would be political costs. And if Iran blockades the states of Hormuz or blocks it even for two weeks, it will be

a global case. There is, of course, that anti-mine task force of the United States, which will clear up any mines in about two to three weeks. But two to three weeks is enough damage to the global economy, including us, sir, and that of the United States, and of Europe, and of the rest of the world. So the rest of the world will have to step in

to bring a halt to this. And in any case, the Americans don't have more weapons stocks to last more than ten days. Ten days this war can last. Beyond that…

We'll closely watch that. Major General G D Bakshi, thank you for joining on such a short notice. And we'll keep a track of what's going on in the Middle East.

Thank you. Thank you. God bless you.