Carney is losing 2 MPs - Liberals could lose those By-Elections!

Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.So, a bunch of nonsense is going to happen all over again, because Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government is about to lose two Liberal MPs, and we are going to have another three by -elections this summer that could determine whether or not the Liberals will actually have a majority come the fall.So let's just get right into it and not do any annoying intro stuff.The person who announced today that they will be stepping down sometime in later June is Jonathan Wilkinson, who has been representing the riding of North Vancouver Capilano since 2015.That's what the riding is currently called.It's been called other things previously, but the boundaries are pretty much the same that they've always been.

But Jonathan is now saying that he is going to become Canada's ambassador to the European Union.He specifically states here, Now, I don't actually believe the prime minister invited him to go become the ambassador to the European Union.It's probably that Jonathan Wilkinson and Mark Carney do not like each other, just like Christy Freeland and Mark Carney do not like each other.And so he is going to go find work elsewhere.Also, whenever a person says, oh, I got into politics to serve Canada, it's like, No, you didn't.Even politicians I like, they didn't get into it to serve Canada or to serve Canadians.

They have specific interests that they want to serve.And I don't mean that from a nefarious perspective.If you're, let's say, like myself, a fiscal hawk, a social and cultural conservative, you are getting into politics to try and bring those values into Canada's government.Now, some people have sleazier motivations for getting into politics.They want, you know, the adulation.They want the attention.

You know, some are hyper -progressive and they want to bring hyper -progressive Marxism into government.Nobody gets into politics because I want to serve Canada.You know, I think there are some people who want to live up to a patriotic ideal, but that's not like the reason you got in.There's many reasons and maybe patriotism is somewhere on the list, but goodness I just I just hate the kind of boilerplate so many politicians use in this country.Now the problem for Mark Carney and the Liberals is that this riding and another riding that we're going to be talking about in just a bit are actually winnable for the for the Conservatives.This was the 2025 election results for North Vancouver Capilano.

Jonathan Wilkinson took 59 .83 % of the vote.The conservative Stephen Curran got 33 .6 % and DP got 4 .24%, but that was a massive underperformance compared to what they usually do.Greens got 1 .7%, People's Party got 0 .4%.But the problem is, even though that's a really healthy margin for Jonathan Wilkinson, I believe that that is a margin that only will show up for Jonathan Wilkinson.It doesn't mean a liberal will not win it in a by -election.What I'm saying is that a very popular individual, whether you and I actually like them or not.

You know, I don't like Jonathan Wilkinson, but there's a certain type of liberal curious voter who likes Jonathan Wilkinson, someone who, you know, definitely the base of the Liberal Party liked him.There's probably some new Democrats who liked him, and there's probably some people who previously voted conservative who liked the cut of Jonathan Wilkinson's, you know, jib.But the problem is, if Jonathan Wilkinson isn't around anymore, is it going to be more of a swing riding again?So I'm just going to go through the election results.for Jonathan Wilkinson since 2015, then we'll go a little bit further back then.So in 2021, he had 45 % of the vote and his conservative opponent had only 28.

Really embarrassing for the conservatives, but again, I think it's just that Jonathan Wilkinson is quite popular and it would have been tough for anyone to beat him.In 2019, he got 42 % of the vote.The conservative previous MP ran again.Andrew Saxton only got 26 % of the vote.In 2015 was the first time that Jonathan Wilkinson took the seat and won it from Andrew Saxton, and he got 56 % of the vote that last time.But as I'm indicating here, Jonathan Saxton in 2011 won it with 48 % of the vote.

And Tlaib Nur Muhammad, who's now, I believe, the MP for Vancouver Centre or Van, it's not Vancouver Centre, it might be like Vancouver whatever it's not quadra that's wade grant but he's a current liberal mp more downtownish uh vancouver to leave newer muhammad ran against andrew saxton 2011 and got beaten 48 to 29 and before that andrew saxton won it in a much tighter election in 2008 and he got it from don bell the previous mp 42 to 37 Don Bell had held the writing for two terms, and before that it was Ted White who won it for the Alliance Party, but also had won it both times that reform ran in 1993 and 1997.This is to say, this isn't liberal territory.With Jonathan Wilkinson, it's liberal territory, but there are many ridings throughout Canada that, unless a specific person ran, that party's not going to do nearly as well.If Elizabeth May steps down in Saanich and the Islands, the Green Party's probably not holding onto that riding.There are other ridings around the country, like one of the ridings that we're going to be talking about that's going to have a by -election.I forget what his name is, Alexander Andrew.

the one NDP MP that was left in all of Quebec.In the by -election, I'm not sure if the NDP hold on to that.He was just personally popular, and now he's going into Quebec provincial politics.And even though the Quebec Solidaire Party isn't that popular overall in Quebec, he's going to be able to easily win a seat for the Quebec Solidaire Party because he just brings that personal magnetism to the races.That's what Jonathan Wilkinson brought into this riding.And I think now what we are going to see is that it's going to become a competitive swing riding again.

And Avi Lewis, the new NDP leader, is from the lower mainland.He's a Vancouverite.Even if he's not going to run as the candidate, and he's already confirmed that, I should bring this up now on X. So Rob Shaw here reports.NDP leader Avi Lewis says he will not run in the by -election to replace Wilkinson and North Vancouver -Capilano, says we'll leave the House of Commons, work for five MPs and spend his time traveling the country to get other ridings ready and raise money for the next election.Now, some people are calling Coward at Avi Lewis.I don't like Avi Lewis, so I'm not one to give the man a compliment or make excuses for him for no reason.

He's not a coward.They just don't have the ground really set for him to run here.Maybe he could win, maybe he couldn't.If he doesn't win, he's an embarrassment and the party starts really hurting.But there's another by -election that's going to happen that's far better for him that we will be getting to in just a bit.I actually just quickly want to take you guys through some clips of Jonathan Wilkinson on CTV News Powerplay, sort of talking about politics as he's leaving.

Right here, this is Not the best thing for Jonathan Wilkinson to say on his way out for Mark Carney, again, probably because he doesn't like Carney, and he's not playing along with the narrative, you know, in Carney's pro pipeline narrative.about himself.Is Carney actually pro -pipeline?No.He just pretends to be, just as people pretend to be doctors on television.Mark Carney pretends to be pro -pipeline as prime minister.

Jonathan Wilkinson is somebody who has always been opposing a pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, is saying that he doesn't actually believe that Carney is going to build the pipeline.

As I say, I know the Prime Minister and I know his commitment to climate action.And I would also say he has a view that it's very important that we find a way to bring Alberta along with us in this conversation.And while I know there are some folks who have raised concerns with respect to some elements of the MOU with Alberta, part of what that's about is getting Alberta to buy into an industrial carbon price that's actually going to be effective to move forward on carbon capture and sequestration that allow us to reduce emissions in the oil and gas sector.Alberta.So I do think that there are different ways to go about addressing the climate issue.But at the at my heart I believe that the prime minister is committed to this.

I just do.

Now, what the cat that Mr. Wilkinson just let out of the bag there is that Mark Carney is not actually serious about getting a pipeline built because he's saying he's confident that Mark Carney is going to do the right thing.And the right thing, from Jonathan Wilkinson's perspective, is not building a pipeline.Actually, this is another thing that Donald Trump's now eating Mark Carney's lunch on.He just said, I'd love to build more pipelines from Canada to the United States.There's an area of leverage here that Carney could exploit.He's not going to, because he's anti -pipeline and he's anti -Trump.

And what Jonathan Wilkinson is saying is that he doesn't actually think that Carney's going to build the pipeline and that he's effectively in his MOU trying to trick Alberta into hurting its own oil and gas industry to try and butter up the liberals for a pipeline that they're never going to build.Like Daniel Smith is probably getting real close this year to just saying Carney's lying to me.And like with his negotiations with Donald Trump on trade, they're meant to go nowhere.and I'm cutting them off.Now I just want to get you guys to this last clip I want to play of Jonathan Wilkinson before we move on to the next by -election riding that we will be talking about.What are your timelines now?

This is now him on the CBC.

Accepted this job but you're still a member of parliament.We're going to have a by -election with Mr. Boularice, maybe with Nate Erskine -Smith.Obviously this needs to be a by -election in your riding.What were the timelines before?

Boularice, I think Alexander Boularice is the NDP guy.resigning in Quebec to run for the Quebec Solidaire, just for some context, when you officially say goodbye to the House of Commons.

So I will be here through much of June, likely till the end of the session.That's a nice sort of departure point and a departure point, you know, with my constituents as well.And I think my wife and I are looking at being over in Brussels sometime early in July.

what are your timelines n us that these things are up fast.So mark car is go the votes he needs until Nate Erskine smith isn't over as well as Alexandr would just be foolish.Th bad in front of voters b other things right now.Jonathan Wilkinson doesn't have any reason to rock the boat right now on Carney because Carney could just not let him be EU ambassador if he screws him over and resigns early.So he's going to hold out.Erskine Smith doesn't want to look like he's abandoning the prime minister while he's trying to run for provincial office.

And Bolares doesn't want to slag Avi Lewis on the way out by looking like he's escaping rather than he's going to continue sitting and voting along with his NDP allies until the Quebec provincial election happens.But a bowl of Reese is probably a lock for that Quebec Solidaire seat in Quebec.If you don't know, Quebec Solidaire is very strange.It's like a grown.It's like a very nationalistic, pro -separative.socialist party.

It's very strange.They're so woke.They have like this is the funny thing with a lot of Quebec nationalists.Nationalism makes you think social conservatism, you know, protecting strong, growing families.No, it's they're protective of the very hyper progressive downtown Montreal politics.And that is what they stand up to protect.

So they're like very anti -immigration.because they want to protect the province for only hyper progressive Quebecers.It's it's very weird.But now we are getting into our next, you know, I don't know of what we're going to.I don't even know what to describe this guy.It's not, you know, it's not a hero or anything like that.

This next person in the Liberal Party is not going to be running again.This ungrate, this whiner or whatever.I can only Nader Skynesmith just makes me think of whining every time I see him.He's like, very much a progressive urbanite whiner, some vegan scold.So Nate Erskine -Smith is currently running to replace Dolly Beagum, who you will know just replaced Bill Blair, for the Scarborough Southwest Federal Riding.That means the Scarborough Southwest Provincial Riding in Ontario is unoccupied.

And Nate Erskine -Smith has been running very hard and frankly bullying people to try and get this riding.Now, the actual, as you can see here, is last day to register to vote and trying to get people to buy Ontario Liberal Party membership so he can get that riding.I think he's probably going to do it.The man came second place in the last Ontario provincial leadership to Bonnie Crombie.He's probably going to be able to win this nomination.But the problem is that while he's getting a clear exit to go get this nomination,

in the Ontario legislature and then run for Ontario Liberal leader, that means that there's going to be an unoccupied seat that he's leaving behind, which is Beech's East York.And now I want to quickly bring up Beech's East York and his electoral record in that riding, because while it looks like this should be a really easy riding for the Liberals to win in a by -election, not so much.in this particular by -election because of the dynamics.So in 2025, you can see that he won the riding with 67 % of the vote, a massive amount.Conservatives got 23, New Democrats got 6, for 6 .8%.Previously, Erskine Smith won with 56, to the NDPs 22, and the Conservatives got 14.

We have here, in 2019, Erskine Smith got 57%, NDP got 21%, and the Conservative got 14%.Very, very left -wing.He has been representing the right -wing since 2015.But before, in 2011, the NDP did win it.This right -wing can swing hard.Now that was a bad election overall for the liberals because that was the Michael Ignatieff election where everyone was more infatuated on the left with Jack Layton than his professorial style.

The liberals won it again in 2008.But if you go back far enough, I actually do believe the NDP had previously won this, yeah, this riding in 1988.Now that's a long ways away.But if you actually look at the vote totals, it's kind of a bipolar riding.It will sometimes vote hard liberal and the new Democrats come at like a very distant, like, you know, second place.But if you go to other elections, it gets closer.

2004, it's 47 to 32.In 2006, it's 40 to 34.These ridings can be competitive on the progressive left.Now I need to show you this special poll that came out from Main Street Research.like basically, I think a couple months ago.This was really interesting.

Now this is kind of older, so I'll show you all the inside information I get by paying Main Street to actually look at their data tables.It's old enough, I don't think Kudo Maggie cares.So this is their local poll for Beaches East York.They currently show it that if the election was held today, they would have, the liberals would win it again with 67 percent of the vote, conservatives would get 17, and the NDP would get 12.Now you might be thinking, Wyatt, why the heck are you showing me that the liberals would retain it with effectively the exact same percentage of the vote?Well, they ended up running another poll where they asked people, how would you vote if Avi Lewis, the new leader of the NDP, was running?

And suddenly The election turns into a close NDP lead, with a lot of people becoming undecided.If you know Beaches East York, I've never been there personally.I've just seen what it looks like.I've seen the demographics.I've seen the type of people they vote in, including Nate Erskine Smith.It's a progressive, progressive riding.

You know, I would say Christian freelance riding is like business progressive.A lot of business people living in downtown Toronto.Yeah, they're progressive.But like these people are, you know, beaches, East York.It must be like I think it's I think you get your citizenship taken away in that riding.If you don't go to at least three pride parades during the month of June and you don't take your kids to drag queen story hour.

And so Nader Sky and Smith, despite the fact or the obvious, despite the fact he's a West coaster in Main Street, research is polling gets 33 percent of the vote to the liberals, 31 percent.Now, that's not too shabby at all, and this is by the way, with 440 respondents.postal codes in that riding.32 .9 Obby Lewis, 30 .8 Liberal, 2 .1 Green, the Conservatives getting 12%.And by the way, the Conservatives in Wilkinson's riding of North Vancouver Capilano and in Beaches East York should throw everything at the wall.They should throw everything at the wall, even in Bolares' riding in Montreal.

Because guess what?Conservatives can win North Vancouver Capilano potentially.If Lewis's NDP really throw money into that riding, and even if he's not running himself, they really throw money into that running and they go from 6 % to let's say 18, because he throws everything in the kitchen sink at it to try and win that riding because they need to put in a good showing and show the NDPs back and the liberals slump and the conservatives really push out their voters, they could win that riding.Done really well, they could at least look really good, the conservatives.And then they should run really hard in Beaches, East York, because it would, in theory, be even easier for somebody like Avi Lewis to win this riding if the conservatives didn't just get 12 percent of the vote.If we did it with this is the redistributed results.

Sorry, the screen keeps shifting around.This is with undecideds taken out and reallocated to who they're leaning towards or completely eliminated if they just have no opinion at all.It goes 43 NDP, 39 liberal and 14 conservative.Now, the margin of error on a poll like this is going to be quite high.What the conservatives could maybe do is that if they put in like $70 ,000 into this writing, run a really good candidate, and you focus on all the liberal leaning neighborhoods, you could probably give Obie Lewis a little bit of help and start hurting the liberal vote by giving Obie Lewis a bigger voice in Parliament.I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

And then in Bolarice's writing, and I don't care to look up the name because I'm not Quebec,Quebecer, and I'm not French, and I would probably butcher the name anyways.Yeah, in his riding, the Conservatives probably get about 5 % of the vote.You have a good French, you know, BC, you know, Quebec Conservative candidate who wants to cut his teeth on running in this election knowing he's not going to win.Give him $50 ,000 and have him target all the more ND illiberal -ish suburbs of that riding and give Bolarice a little bit of help.You know, grab onto all the anti -separatist voters in that by -election from the Liberals and see what you can do.

I'm just saying, the Conservatives could probably help trip up the Liberals from winning over that NDP rotting in Montreal.They could trip up the Liberals in Beaches, East York and let the NDP pick up that seat.And in North Vancouver, Capilano, they could flat out win that one.I'd give that candidate like $200 ,000, have everyone come out, reach out to all the provincial parties and see if they'll help.Reach out to both the BC Conservatives and us at 1BC, maybe we can get something to happen.I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

And by the way, I'm purely speaking for myself.I'm not speaking on behalf of 1BC.I'm just being funny here.But regardless, there is actually a potential that Mark Carney gained a majority through floor crossings that was very sleazy and holding onto it through three easy by -elections.I always hate when people are like, oh, the Conservatives did so badly in those by -elections.The last three by -elections we had, University of Rosedale, the one in Quebec, Or which one was it?

It was like Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest.There's another one.Those have never been conservative ridings.So of course conservatives didn't show up to them.It's a by -election where you're not going to win.Conservatives only show up in those ridings in the general elections out of solidarity with the rest of the voters and easier to win ridings.

Of course they didn't do well in these ones.But in these new by -elections, there actually is the potential of Carney getting his majority in a corrupt fashion and then getting punished by voters in the next three by -elections and then losing it again, or it gets basically whittled down to just one.Actually, if they lose both North Vancouver -Capilano as well as Beaches -East York, it would actually now be a minority government once again.And that, to me, would be quite funny.Anyways, so with all that being said, Conservative Party, take my advice, don't take my advice.Either, either take this advice or hold Pierre down and force him to wear like a brown tie like this rather than like always wearing a dark navy tie.

This is my pet peeve with Pierre Poliaf.I like the guy, I like him, but I am a fashion terrorist and I will eventually find him and force him to pick a color other than navy blue and slightly dark blue.He needs another color.He's looking like SpongeBob SquarePants these days, always wearing the same outfit every day.He needs some color in his life.Bring out the color in your eyes by wearing like brown.

Brown loves blue.For all you men out there trying to figure out how to wear suits, if you have a dark blue suit, brown ties work really well with it.Cream colored shirt.Don't always buy white shirts.It makes everything cool.Cream colored shirts look good.

Anyways.With all that being said, thank you guys for watching.Like this video if you're a fan of the channel.Subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber.And I want to thank everyone who is currently a member of the National Telegraph channel.You really help make my job far easier every month because YouTube does not like making my job easy.

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Anyways, with all that being said, thank you, guys.I'll see you all later.