Full analysis | NATO reacts to Russian drone hitting Romania

Let's turn our attention to what's happening in Russia, Ukraine now.NATO has vowed to bolster its defences.That's after a Russian drone hit a 10 -storey block of flats in Romania, injuring two people.Now, the drone incursion occurred near the city of Gelati, that is in the southeast of the country, towards the Black Sea, and it came during an overnight attack on Ukraine.Romania has accused Russia of a serious violation of international law and called on allies to deploy anti -drone capabilities to strengthen NATO's eastern flank.Well, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this.

Russia's war of aggression has crossed yet another line.A Russian drone incursion struck a densely populated area in Romania, injuring civilians on EU territory.We stand in full solidarity with Romania and its people.As we continue strengthening our security and deterrence, especially on our eastern border, we will keep increasing the pressure on Russia.We are preparing a 21st century package of sanctions.Our military analyst, Sean Bell, is in the studio with me now.

Very good morning to you, Sean.Always good to have you in the studio.From your military assessment, this drone incursion into Romania, was that a strategic thing or is it an error?

Yeah, I mean, from a bluntly, there's no advantage in Russia actually striking a civilian block of flats.I mean, the two injuries.I think it's worth, if we can, if we've got a map zooming out slightly and just seeing exactly where this strike occurred.As you said earlier in Galati, but it's actually quite close to where a lot of Ukraine trade is.It's not far from Odessa.It's also not far from the Danube, which obviously marks the border of Romania.

And across the border,that is where a lot of the shipments go out for Ukraine trade, particularly grain.And of course, you'll remember from strategically, both sides, both Russia and Ukraine, there we go, a closed -in map of it, both sides are trying to stop this.each other's ability to fund the war and, therefore, the more attacks that can be done like this.What is interesting as well, though, it's not the first time that there's been a drone incursion.The Romanian defence minister said this was the 28th incursion, the first time that one's actually struck a building.

I think it's worth noting, though, from a military side of it, I'm sort of going, OK, Russia wouldn't deliberately do this, would they?The Russians are actually firing about 1 ,000 drones a day at Ukraine.When I was operating in the military, Probability of kill PK of a weapon was never a hundred percent.It was normally about 90 % In other words, you always had to fire at least two weapons to guarantee one would strike if you look at the Russian technology It's probably a little bit worse than the Western stuff is let's call it a charitable 80 % So if you fire a thousand drones, you're talking about 200 drones that might well go anywhere So it shouldn't be a great surprise if you're gonna fire at targets that are quite close to the border It's also bluntly you're now tapping on your keyboard programming a thousand with latitude and longitude.

I'm not, by the way.This is hypothetical.

But if you tap one wrong number, of course that drone suddenly hairs off in a completely different direction.So I think there is a...We're very fortunate on this particular occasion that only two people were injured, but it does demonstrate it's only a matter of time before people get killed on NATO territory if Russia doesn't change its actions.

Yeah, I mean, so what we can say is that this is unlikely to be a totally isolated incident, just on the balance of probability.from what you're describing here.At what point do European allies, NATO allies actually push back, right?It's all very well saying, well, you know, perhaps here's thethe 21st package of sanctions, here's...When does that become more significant?

Yeah, I mean, first of all, it's got to be seen, is this just an accident or is this part of a trend?I think what's interesting, a fog of war, things happen.Mark Rutter, though, was very clear, starting to get angry, that the Russian reckless act, he talked about it.And, of course, there are grave consequences if, effectively, Russia starts killing people in a NATO country, even if it is accidental.I think, if you put it into context, though, it is also interesting that Russia has been doing a whole raft of things, against NATO.We were covering the reports where Russian fighter jets were buzzing the Rivet joint aircraft, the Royal Air Force intelligence gathering aircraft, flying within only a few metres in a reckless act.

We've been seeing the Russian submarines operating close to undersea cables.GCHQ have been saying that there's a massive threat to our cyber side.So all of this demonstrate that Russia is in isolation, maybe an accident, but taken together, this is clearly part of a Russian strategy to provoke NATO.

OK, all right.For now, Sean, that's all we've got time for.Thank you.