How the hometown humiliation of Putin marks a turning point for Ukraine | DW News

Russia's war on Ukraine is escalating again.Waves of missiles, drone strikes and increasingly bold Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russian territory.At a major international economic forum in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin's hometown, the war suddenly came into full view.

smoke pouring into the sky.It's a pretty humiliating moment.

That's Tim Willesey -Wilsey, Professor of War Studies at King's College in London and a former diplomat.He's helped me break down where the war stands and what these dramatic images mean.He says that they may point to a deeper shift.

I think there is slight evidence that Putin is rattled.Putin is bothered about how it's going.

So is Ukraine gaining the upper hand and are Russia's escalating counterattacks a sign of strength or desperation?Could this moment shape how this war ends?

I think it is a critical moment, but I think it's one of several critical moments that have been over the four years.It's very difficult to predict whether this is the critical moment.I think what's different here is I think there is slight evidence that Putin is rattled.Putin is bothered about how it's going.And indeed, so he should be.I mean, it went very well for him over the last winter.

I mean, Kiev had a terrible winter of attacks and the attacks on its electricity, you know, and a lot of people were freezing in their flats and it was a pretty dire situation.But really, ever since the spring, ever since April, things have very much gone Ukraine's way.And I think Putin actually showed a very rare moment of weakness.when he had to go to Donald Trump to ask Zelensky not to attack the parade for the Great Patriotic War.If you're a dictator, and let's call Putin a dictator, if you're a dictator, the one thing you cannot doto show is weakness for your domestic audience.

And I think, too, his sort of, the hard men of the FSB, the people who support him, would have seen that moment and would have regarded it as pretty humiliating.Zelensky actually wrote, saying, you know, basically, I permit you to have a parade.It doesn't get a lot worse than that.I think things have turned in Ukraine's favor.It doesn't mean that it's going to remain that way.It doesn't mean that Ukraine are going to win this war, whatever that means.

But I think it is a critical moment.

What does it mean that Ukraine can strike Putin's hometown at the very moment he's trying to project strength and global support?

Of course, it's not just that it was Putin's hometown.It's that there's this big conference going on in which actually there are United States representatives there as well.I think people from a very large number of countries, almost 100 countries, I think, are there.So this is a big showcase to put in to show the world that, you know, he has got the you know, he's got the support of so many countries and, you know, he's widely admired, which which which he is in many parts of the global of the global south.And then suddenly, of course, you hit an oil refinery within visual distance of the conference from.And you see this black smoke pouring into the sky.

It's a pretty humiliating moment.

Beyond symbolism, Ukraine is now striking deep inside Russia using home -built weapons, which gives complete autonomy on what targets they can hit.

It's not just drones as well.Some of these are long -range missiles.And, you know, it is remarkable, really, that, OK, Britain and France allowed allowed a particular long -range missile to be used with the French called Scalp and the British called Storm Shadow.The Germans wavered over Taurus and I'm still not convinced that any Taurus have actually been delivered to Europe.in spite of Friedrich Merz sort of sounding quite positive before he was elected.So what have the Ukrainians done?

They have gone and manufactured their own.And this FP range of missiles they have developed, a lot of them which are sort of semi copies of Western and actually Soviet stroke Russian missiles as well, you know, has been one of many remarkable technical achievements.So they can now strike, you know, over 1000 miles.And I think one of their missiles is being designed to do over 2000 miles.So, you know, in April, they did, I think, 21 strikes against the oil infrastructure, some in the Baltic, some in the Black Sea, and some beyond the Urals.And I think eight particular refineries were hit.

This is pretty impressive stuff by the Ukrainians.The other interesting aspect to this, I think, is that I think in the past, Zelensky has been anxious to do something which might spark the annoyance of Donald Trump.Now, with Trump so busy, so focused on Iran and the Gulf and getting himself out of you know, the real fix that the United States is in, in the Gulf.He's not focusing so much on Russia, Ukraine.So I think Zelensky's got more freedom now.I mean, only a few months ago, that attack on St. Petersburg, I think would have drawn a condemnation from Trump.

But at the same time, Russia has stepped up its strikes on Ukraine, causing significant loss of life and great amounts of damage to infrastructure.So are we looking at a change in strategy or is something more political taking place?

I read it as two things.I think there is a hint of desperation in there, by the way.But I also think it's trying tograb the attention of Washington and it's trying to terrify both the Ukrainians and the Europeans.I don't think it's going to terrify the Ukrainians.They've been through this stuff for four years.

But, you know, to use the Orezhnik missile, albeit with no warhead, apparently, but here is a nuclear capable missile of, you know, capable of great speed.It's a terror weapon, really.That's not military, that's message sending.That's sending a message to Ukraine that, you know, we're serious about this.To Europe, you'd better not help Ukraine.And to the United States, please, could you reconnect with us and get Whitcoff over here?

Because in a sense, the biggest threat to Zelensky in Ukraine is another burst of Trump diplomacy.which so nearly, if you remember, over the winter, you know, gave Putin everything he wanted, you know, which was the Donbass, even the parts of the Donbass that he has not even taken yet.So these, I think, are the motivations behind Putin.at the moment.

Now, we're often looking for a turning point in this war.So how much pressure is the Russian president really under?

Putin is still currently dominant.All I'm suggesting is he's shown a couple of cracks.Now, what are those?So, yeah, going badly in the Donbass.Then there's the very interesting reporting from the Institute of Study of War of the Ukrainian success towards the land route to Crimea.and to the Sea of Azov, which is a very, very interesting new development.

There was the loss of his ally, Prime Minister Orbán of Hungary, to an election.Trump distracted, and we've talked about, and the attacks on the oil infrastructure.So, you know, several things going wrong.Look at some of the other things.Rushing to China just after Trump visited to find out, you know, what has been discussed sort of thing.You know, is there anything I should be worried about there?

The talk about another offensive in Belarus.the exercises with the Belarusian army, including nuclear exercises.I mean, a lot of this is message sending.Again, it's just trying to alarm everybody.But the interesting thing when you talk about Putin's position is how is then that perceived by the hard men in the Kremlin who look at him and say, hang on, this guy is showing signs of weakness.And I think you're also aware there've been a few signs of, a few comments made in Moscow which only a few years ago would have resulted in those people being in prison.

I think the Pravda correspondent in Moscow started speculating whether they might even call off the Red Square parade.I think the only thing I would say is, you know, we need to be careful what we wish for.If there were to be a replacement for Putin, I don't think it's going to be some nice, cuddly liberal.who's going to get on with Macron and Merz and Starmer.It's not going to be that sort of person.So, you know, we need to be we need to be a little bit cautious about this.

We're hearing more talk of negotiations, possible meetings, direct engagement.But is that meaningful or is it just positioning?

Well, Zelensky is messaging of yesterday, I think is grandstanding.I don't think it's serious at all.He says, you know, I'm prepared to meet you.But then he actually rather mocks Putin and says, you know, we've even visited your hometown, you know, a thousand miles from here.So, you know, reference, I think, to the strike on St. Petersburg.So I don't think Zelensky's thing was serious.

I don't really think Putin's was either, because if you remember, he talked about Gayhardt.Schroeder as an intermediary.Well, you know, that's going to be acceptable to absolutely nobody.So why is he talking about mediation?Again, I think he's trying to recapture the attention of Donald Trump, which, you know, which which he hasn't yet.So I'm not convinced about mediation on either side.

So realistically, are we anywhere close to Putin and Zelensky sitting down and talking?I think the chances of a face -to -face meeting are absolutely minimal.I know in Europe there is talk about, you know, whether or not there should be negotiations sponsored by Europe.But I think even those are at a very, very embryonic stage.What I do think has been very interesting in the last day though, last few days, is there's been a And I don't know whether this is in the UK only, but the Russian ambassador in the UK gave an interview in which he pretty much directly threatened NATO countries which support Ukraine.Curiously enough, he mentioned UK, Denmark and Canada, which seemed like a rather random selection of countries.

But I think at one point he even said, you know, even we know where your addresses are.It seemed like a direct threat.And I think this is actually I think this is part of the policy, which is you know, to ramp up the pressure on European countries.

Let's step back for a moment and consider what we've discussed.And this is where we'd like to hear your thoughts.Where does this war actually stand right now?

I think what's happened is Ukraine has turned the tables on Russia this spring.And a lot of it actually is this extraordinary kill zone they have created, what they call the kill zone, this 40km deep zone, in which Ukraine now tries to have virtually no troops at all.just using drones coordinated, I think, to an extent by AI.They've got this Delta management system and this SkyMap system of all sorts of sensors.And so you've now got an extraordinary thing, almost like a computer game happening.Now, All the advantage now, therefore, lies with the defender.

And Russia is trying to take territory.So it's pouring men into that kill zone and losing them in vast quantities.So suddenly, what we used to say, which was why Russia would ultimately win, is they've got more people.Suddenly, people is not the issue for Ukraine anymore.They've taken that out of the equation.They have made this into the most modern, technological, partly AI driven, warfare, which is winning.

Now, the problem is all the advantages with the defence.What happens if Ukraine then tries to retake the bits of the Donbass that Russia has taken?Then I think you're in a really different situation.So I can see this is a very successful defensive war, but I don't think it wins them back the Donbass or the Crimea, unless, of course, the Russian army mutinies.or the Russian government remove Putin.

So while Ukraine may have shifted the dynamics on the battlefield, the bigger question still remains whether that's enough to change the outcome of the war.For now, Russia still holds territory.And as we've heard, turning this defensive advantage into outright victory is far from guaranteed.I'm Pablo Foglielias.See you again soon.