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Iran Just Lit the Fuse on the Global Reset (Here's What Smart Money Is Doing)

Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)26 views
0:00

Right now the headlines are screaming about war and millions of investors, including these two, are all asking the exact same scary question.Should I sell everything?Oil is jumping.Ships are turning away from one of the most important bits of water on earth.And let me introduce Hugh, our oil analyst, and Winston, our resident gold analyst.And in all seriousness, All social media is running the same, you know, breaking news banner in your stomachs and I'm not.

0:33

But what nobody's telling you is this.While you're watching the bombs and the news, the smartest money on Wall Street is quietly doing the opposite of what you'd expect.And if you get this wrong, you could hand over years of your savings.And if you get it right, this could be the moment that sets you up.Now, Quick warning, this video is going to be pretty information dense.So to make sure it really lands for you, Winston Downey has put together a free research report for you, which covers everything I'm about to explain, plus more.

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Otherwise, this video would become so long.It's no catch.There's no credit card.You literally just download it for free at FelixFrenzel .org slash Insidious, because that's what I want you to be by the end of this video.So grab it, keep it next to you.

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And if you're the kind of person who takes this seriously, then type Learn in the comments so I know who's really paying attention here and truly learning.But you see, what's happening right now has all happened before.

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The Gulf War, the invasion of Iraq, Russia and Ukraine.Every single one of these major conflicts followed the same pattern in the market.And almost every time, regular investors get it wrong in one of two really painful ways.

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Either they panic and sell everything right at the bottom.Or they get excited and they chase oil and defense stocks right at the top.Both of those feel like the smart move in the moment.and both of them are how ordinary people lose money.So here's my promise to you, by the end of this video you'll understand the exact three -phase framework that markets go through that the pros understand during any conflict, not just this one, and you'll know where the money goes and flows next and how to position yourself calmly, without any panic and without gambling on headlines.I've even packaged the whole thing into the free report that I've just given you above.

2:30

If you're wondering who the heck I am, my name is Felix, that was Winston down there, Hugh just ran off, who's obviously the brains behind it all.And yes, I used to be an investor and banker and economist.But I think probably the thing you should really know is that there are no sponsors on this channel.We don't get paid by any companies.We don't plug any products.We don't have a fund to sell you.

2:51

We just give you the financial education that I think you deserve.And if you're wondering why I do that, it's fun.It's just insanely satisfying to see people change their lives because they're learning how to make their money work for them better rather than panicking and second guessing, as most people are.So in every crisis, there really are two crowds.There are regular investors, which is you and me.Wall Street's causes are civilians, retail.

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And then there are the big institutions.You know, you think of Wall Street, they're not necessarily all on Wall Street.Some now are down in Miami or in Chicago or something.But those are the pros with the deep pockets.And in a panic, these two groups behave completely opposite ways.So let's start with us, you and me, retail.

3:37

When fear hits, we tend to do one of three things.One, we panic and we run to cash.Feels safe but you've just locked in a guarantee loss because inflation will kill all your money eventually.The second thing we tend to do is we freeze.

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So we just stare at the screen endlessly, we refresh our portfolio every three seconds, if that sounds familiar, like freeze in the comments, or three, we chase whatever just jumped, oils up, defense stocks up, you know, gold occasionally, this is a bit unusual, this war, I mentioned that in a moment, that's what's the end, why gold's down.

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But usually you buy at exactly the worst possible moment right at the top.

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Now, what are the pros doing?The Wall Street lobbies, well, something very different.Right now, corporate insider buying has hit its lowest level since 2018.Fewer than one in three big companies had a single insider step in and buy their own stock, while insiders were busy selling the rally.And analysts have a name for what's happening.They're calling it the great tech handoff.

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And the professionals are quietly passing their most expensive, most crowded tech stocks over to, yes you, congratulations, the crowd.And it is us who's on the other side of that.We are catching what they're selling if we're buying tech stocks right now, right?Retail, buying at nearly double the normal price.So let me put that in really plain English.Picture a game of musical chairs.

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Retail is dancing faster and faster and faster, having a great time cheering.The pros are the ones standing quietly right next to a chair, just waiting for the music to stop.

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So if you felt that urge to sell this week, do me a favor and type urge in the comments down below.I just want to get a bit of a read of the room.Because you're not alone.And I'm going to show you exactly why that feeling is a trap.

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And there is no shame in fear.It's a very useful instinct we have.And that fear you're feeling, it is very, very, very rational.War is destabilizing.Conflict is unpredictable.The markets genuinely don't care.

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hate uncertainty.So if you're nervous, it isn't a weakness.You're actually recognizing a pattern.Your brain has evolved over thousands of years to spot a threat and run away from it.It's what kept your ancestors alive.It's why we're still around, right?

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6:07

But the paradox that nobody talks about is this.That very same runaway instinct is what gets you destroyed in the stock market.Because historically, Markets panic first and then they adapt.Almost every single time this happens.So the trick isn't to feel no fear.The trick is to have a framework that's stronger than your fear.

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And if we're really honest for a second, every time one of these scary headlines drops or you see a reel of some bomb exploding and you feel it, right?

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You feel that fear in your stomach.So you refresh your phone at midnight, you sell near the bottom because you're afraid, and then you buy back near the top because of FOMO.The news is running your emotions, and your emotions are running your money, so the news is actually running your money.And I need you to hear me, that is a very exhausting, very expensive way to live.It steals your sleep, it steals your savings.

7:05

If you want to picture two versions of yourself, like a year from now, The first version changed nothing, nada.

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I'm fine.And you're still glued to the news.You still have your gut in a knot every time a banner flashes red, still checking the stock market every morning.And then another whole year handed over to panic and news and a portfolio that didn't really do anything.

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Now, the second version, this is the one that learned a system where the headlines simply don't move you anymore.You see a war headline and you feel nothing because you already know where the money goes.You sleep straight through that noise in the night.and that second person is not smarter than the first.they're not luckier than the first they just got the system and i want to hand you that exact system the system that the pros and banking have used for over 50 years for free this saturday at 8 a .m

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m eastern time new york time that's in 1 p .m in london center of the world time just ask one of the brits and i'm gonna go live for you for about two hours and i'm gonna walk you through a trading system built to make market headlines completely irrelevant.Live, free, you and me, Winston, and two hours to change how you invest for the rest of your life.And I need you to understand that this is not going to be some replay that you're going to bookmark and never watch.It's live.It's this Saturday.

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The seats are limited.So do this right now if you have to.Pause this video.Open a new tab and go to bulletproofportfolio .org and save yourself a seat.Bulletproofportfolio .

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org.That's our goal.Write it down so you don't forget it.Bulletproofportfolio .org.The link is also in the description down below.

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And Winston says, go and join us.Don't you, Winston?Really nice and wet because we had a nice little hike in the rain this morning, didn't we?Yes, there we are.So if you do that, you will find out what it actually feels like to stop being afraid of the news.So let's build the framework I promised you here today.

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Part numero uno.Conflict moves the market through three phases.Learn these three, write it down, and it turns the chaos into more of a map.Phase one is the shock.This is what is happening right now.Right.

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Once again, I mean, we got shocked in February.We got shocked in July.But it happens all the time.It's loud.It's emotional.The algorithms get scared.

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The humans are selling at the same time.Oil spikes and the fear gauge is called the VIX.It jumps above 20.And that number is really just a measure of how much crash insurance Wall Street is rushing to pay.buy.So even if you look at my news, which is what we have in the Winston app, you get like a roundup of what's going on with your portfolio in there.

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What are the headlines?Well, a bunch of stuff about eBay that I own, but you know, U .S.-Iran conflict enters eighth consecutive day and so on, you know, markets selling off with the exception of some of my stocks.But yeah, markets are definitely having a pretty tough time.So Wall Street is buying some things.

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The riskiest stuff gets hit first.Growth, tech, quantum, AI, whatever the latest thing is.But the twist that proves phase one is a trap is this.This time even gold dipped in the first shock.

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Down about, you know, whatever it is, down about a bit, to be precise, to be very specific.And the one thing everybody buys for safety is usually gold.

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Why?Because oil spikes pushed interest rate cuts further away, and some big players had to sell some gold to raise cash to pay for the oil.And that is your proof that phase one is a head fake.So the rule here is very simple.Do not chase the spike and do not panic sell into it.Phase two is what comes next.

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The initial panic starts to fade and the market stops asking how scary is this?And it starts asking a much smarter question.Does this actually change anything?Is the U .S.economy still here?

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Is this going to push up inflation?Does it change what the Fed does?Is the supply line broken for a long time or just a few days?And this is the quiet phase where the big institutions calmly reposition, where your mentors made their money in the clarity of understanding what's going on.Not in the chaos of phase one.And then phase three is the

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rotation because here's the beautiful part in a crisis money doesn't vanish it travels it says i'm gonna go to the south of france because the weather is really good so it moves from the old winners into the new ones sector by sector so your job was never to predict the headline your job is to follow the river of money That's how much money it is.A really wide river of institutional money, and it's gushing in one direction.And people are going, which way should I swim?

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But here's the part almost nobody connects out loud.So let me walk you through the dominoes one at a time.Conflict pushes oil up.Conflict tends to be by oilers.It's a coincidence, by the way.Nothing to do with the money.

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And then what happens?Well, oil goes up, right?Inflation goes up.

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And it means the Fed can't cut interest rates anymore.So rates stay higher for longer and higher for longer plus inflation quietly does one very specific thing.It inflates away the giant national debt our lovely politicians have piled up to help all the orphans and kittens and the defense contractors and to get reelected.And the uncomfortable question is, why would anyone actually want that?Because the debt is just too big to ever pay back.the honest way.

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So watch this free move machine.Move one is already announced.Conflict and higher oil keep inflation nice and warm and elevated.

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Move two is now the law of the land.There's a new law called the the genius act because it's really just genius and forces stablecoins, digital dollars, to be backed by the US government's IOUs.

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In plain English it creates a giant captive brand newlegal buyer for U .S.S.debt.So in fact, one single stablecoin company, Tether, is already among the top 20 holders of U .S.

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government debt on the entire planet.I met one of their co -founders actually in the south of France, funnily enough.And move three is just the consequence.Let the dollar quietly lose a little value every year so the debt shrinks against a growing economy.And this is where Iran comes in.We should send them a thank you note to allow us to make this happen.

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Iran is the accelerant.It speeds the whole machine up.And I want to be very clear.This is not a conspiracy theory.

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Move one was announced.Move two is written into law.And move three is simply the consequence of the first two.And if you're still thinking, Felix, I think you put your tinfoil hat on.

14:28

Well, It does sound far -fetched, doesn't it?First time somebody told me this, I was like, yeah, all right.But you see, they've done this before.After World War II, the US national debt was about 100%, 106 % to be precise.So 106 % of the entire economy was debt.Terrifying number.

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And one generation later, it was down to 23%.Did they pay it all back?No, not a penny.What happened is that low interest rates plus hot inflation quietly shrank it over time.and economists have a fancy name for this we call it financial repression it's kind of a pretty good name because in plain english it is your hundred dollars of debt slowly starts to feel like 70 and then like 50 and so on the problem of could add of course this is the same happens to your cash so if you're holding a lot of cash uh god help you actually he will invest

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able to.Investing is the only thing that'll help you.So what do we do with all this information?Well, here's the entire philosophy in three words.Tilt, don't gamble.It's actually four words, isn't it?

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But you get the idea.You lean gently towards what's probable.You never bet the whole farm on a single guess.So let me give you five tilts.Tilt one is energy.Buy the shovels, not the barrel.

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Bank of America looked at 90 years of these shocks and oil is the single best performing asset, up about 18 % three months after a war starts.But, and this matters, the effect fades, often within about six months.So if you touch it, you have to have an exit plan.You do not marry the oil barrel.She's very greasy.So the karma plays what I call the toll collectors, the pipelines, the storage, the energy infrastructure.

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They get paid no matter who's doing the drilling.That's the first thing.Tilt dos is defense.And again, this is not a one week pop.Countries across NATO are lifting their defense spending targets from about 2 % towards like 5 % of the economy.I mean, Trump really made that happen, right?

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16:39

Peace presidents, amazing.And I'm going to get some hate for that.I take the piss out of every single sitting president.I think it's permitted.Don't care what party they are or your political affiliations.We're going to see a multi -year wave of spending, and increasingly it's flowing towards drones and unmanned AI -driven systems.

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And I'm actually in the midst of some really in -depth research into all the drone and AI sort of UAV stocks.If you want me to make a video on drones write drones in the comments and if there are enough of them and I'll actually do it for you.With any theme like this you want to spread across a couple of names.You never put everything on onecontractor.So that's Tilt 2.

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Tilt 3 is gold and silver.And you're like, but it's down, and you told us don't buy it.No, I didn't.I talked about it endlessly when it was rallying a lot, because it was very interesting.

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But I also told you that the prices in the short and the medium term are controlled by the people who make the market at Comex so efficient and wonderful.

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That's what they say.Just ask them, or some of you might say, by people who manipulate the price.You know, of course, I wouldn't use that kind of language because, you know, market makers, actually, I employ three market makers, wonderful people, including one who worked at the London Metal Exchange, used to, I was going to say manipulate silver, I mean, make the silver market really efficient in London.

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And we have some fun talking about it.Anyway, so what happens?

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Well, central banks around the world are hoarding gold at the fastest pace in decades because They're scared of the dollar and the dollar being frozen.But again, this is a longer game.This is something you calmly accumulate into the weakness.You think in years, maybe even decades.Definitely not days.That's gold and silver.

18:31

Tilt four, quality.Quality, quality, quality.What's quality?Pricing power stocks.People call it a moat and it just means a business that can raise its prices without losing a customer.Classic example after COVID, PepsiCo.

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They pushed up their prices about 17 percent.They said that was inflation.Yeah.And its margins went up.Right.That's a moat because people were addicted to that sugary stuff in plastic because plastic and sugary stuff is so healthy.

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But maybe write this down.Pricing power has a C. And this is a fresh piece of data.By 2026, shoppers had finally had enough and Pepsi actually cut prices on things like Lays and Doritos.

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and Cheetos and all those health foods that they make to make you live longer.

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So you don't have to take any pharmaceuticals.So you're looking for real pricing power, not a company that's already pushed its luck a little bit too far.

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That's tilt four.Tilt fifth is know the losers.

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And this one is a counterintuitive thing.So you write it down too, please.Higher for longer interest rates are this hurts the rate sensitive sectors.What does that mean?Utilities and real estate, they run on a lot of borrowed money and people buy them for their dividends.So when rates stay high, they get squeezed from both sides.

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Now, funnily enough, I'm actually looking at buying some real estate stocks this week, but very specific, very niche.I'm looking at some self -storage ETFs and things like that.

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Really, really specific.Not, you know, good old American housing.And if you want to filter for some of the stuff, say the quality stocks, I'll put a link down below with a free trial to the Winston up here.You can just go in to discover highest rated.You can filter by any sector you want, basically.any region you want.

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I've got the US on here, but we've got, you know, the snow Mexicans.We've got the socialist republics of Europe.We've got the formerly great, now just Britain.We've got the Germans.I'm one of those.We've got the, you know, they're all on the holiday at the moment.

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And then the lovely beautiful Swedes, the Swissies who hold all the gold.I'm going to stop insulting countries at this point.But you get the idea.Equal opportunity insults all around here.And you can filter, right?You can filter by smart money.

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21:01

You can see what Trump's doing and so on.And one thing I would simply look at is Moat, right?Does it have a perfectmoat score of 10.It's usually pretty good quality, right?So that's that.

21:14

These little charts here show you the profit per share growth.So in an ideal world, you know, you're looking at something that goes up like Nvidia here or like Spectra, and that says accelerating record quarter as well, which tells you whether, again, you can filter by that.And then, you know, so we click on that, you get a lot more data, but you can also open up the full thing and it'll walk you through literally the full thing, our score history, you know, all the growth, all the data that you ever wanted to know.If politicians own it, it would also be on there.Obviously, politicians don't own this one, but they do, for example, own Nvidia, I would imagine.So you can see all the politicians buying and selling in here.

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Big Net buys, Trump here, 4 .8 million, Pelosi has taken profits, you know, that sort of thing.It shows you a lot.of very valuable data, which is why I built it for.I actually built these things for myself.I'm quite selfish, but I share them with you to make sure you all have access to the same quality data, right?So that's Winston for you.

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And he does a very good job in building it, doesn't he?He sort of snoozes while we labor away.If you only take one thing away from this video, don't bet on war.

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Yes, we tilt towards probability.We tilt towards where the money is flowing.And what that means in practice is that you size your position so that no single call can ever wreck you.

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You keep a calm core portfolio and you know your downside and you exit before you ever enter a trade.And if that doesn't make any sense to you, then join me on Saturday and I'll explain that.And I know it's the least sexy thing I could possibly share to you, but your risk management is the most important thing.You get that right, you'll make money.This isn't a trick question.This isn't a casino.

23:06

This isn't about excitement.This is about your retirement and your quality of life and your quality of sleep in the moment.And if you didn't think I was strange already, let me tell you something even stranger.I don't own a television.

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I haven't owned one in 20 years.I don't watch the news, never ever.Because honestly, all the news I actually need is in the stock market.It's in the prices.

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I can see where the money is really moving.I don't need to know why.I bought oil stocks, here's one, Weatherford, in October of 2025, six months before the war broke out.The war broke out somewhere here.I had no idea a war was going to break out.I had no idea why Wall Street was buying Weatherford.

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But, you know, the stock went up very, very nicely.And I took profits and I moved on and I bought something else with it.

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Again, not because I had some insane insight and understanding of the Middle East or I'm an expert in drone defense or oil shipping.I'm not.Smart investing isn't dramatic.It isn't loud and it isn't scary.It is structure.It's patterns.

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It's rules.That's the whole secret.So let's bring it home.

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We have three phases.Shock, repricing, rotation.Follow the money.Don't try to predict the headline.Tilt.Don't gamble.

24:23

And please, don't let the Saturday slip past you.The last few weeks have had the news running your emotions.Come and let me hand you the system that ends that for good, forever.It's free, it's live, it's two hours and it's this Saturday at 8am New York time, 1pm London.

24:41

Just go to bulletproofportfolio .org and save yourself a seat right here, right now.And then Winston's final words, Winston?And he says, stay calm, don't chase the FOMO, and stop watching the war coverage.Honestly, it's the best thing you can do for your sanity.And if you found this helpful, share this video with a friend who might need it.

25:03

And if you know somebody who might benefit from a rules -based system that completely ignores the news, or you know somebody who isn't sleeping very well because of what's going on in the world, then send in the link to bulletproofportfolio .org, put it on your Twitter or Facebook or wherever you post things, and We will therefore change more people's lives, which is really what this is all about.

25:29

I thank you for watching.

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