Iran leaks peace draft details: What would US get for ending blockade?

Iranian state television is reporting that according to a draft memo the US will end its blockade of Iran's ports and in return Iran will restore the number of commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz to pre -war levels soon.CNN's Oren Lieberman joins us now from Jerusalem with the latest.Oren, what are you learning from about this draft memo being reported on Iranian state television?

Lina, this is our first sense of what's in the Memorandum of Understanding that's being worked on between the U .S.and Iran to try to get to a ceasefire agreement.It is important to note that this information comes from Iranian state television, so we don't yet have confirmation of this from the U .S.side.

And crucially, even Iranian state television says this isn't finalized yet.But it does include a lot of what the U .S.is looking for in terms of the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian state television says the Memorandum of Understanding, or MOU, calls for the U .S.

to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and for U .S.military forces to withdraw from the vicinity of Iran, and in exchange, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz and ensure that traffic through the crucial waterway is back to pre -war levels within one month.All that according to Iranian state television.Now, that's not it.In terms of monitoring the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which some one -fifth of the world's water flows, sorry, through which one -fifth of the world's crude oil flows, it would be up to Iran, working with Oman, to monitor and control that traffic, according to Iranian state television.

That, in and of itself, may be unacceptable to the U .S., because that, in a way, leaves the Strait of Hormuz under partial Iranian sovereignty, and that, of course, has been a red line for the U .S.Now, Iranian state TV says this is still in the works, it's still being negotiated, and it's not finalized, but Pakistan is mediating between the U .S.

and Iran to try to get to some sort of agreement.According to Iranian state television, it calls for the U .S.to withdraw forces from the vicinity of Iran.What exactly does that mean?Iran has called for the U .

S.to withdraw forces from the broader Middle East.I think that's clearly not going to happen.So, a lot depends on how Iran defines its vicinity and whether the U .S.would even see it as acceptable that Iran and Oman are left monitoring and controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

But this is a look at the MOU that's in the works here to try to get to a broader ceasefire agreement to end this war and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.of Hormuz.Linda, we have seen a trickle of traffic flowing through the Strait.I believe there were about 24 ships or 25 ships that went through yesterday.That's still a fraction of pre -war traffic.

And Arun, we know that the U .S.president is set to host a cabinet meeting discussing Iran in the coming hours.Do we know what exactly the U .S.will accept and who is negotiating on behalf of the U .

S.right now?In the end, it's almost certainly simply up to President Donald Trump himself.What is he willing to accept as part of an agreement here?Now, the red lines he's drawn are no highly enriched uranium remaining in Iran and trying to essentially end the nuclear program.Now, that's not in this.

Iran has, through the means of this MOU and and its other negotiations, push that off to a later phase of negotiations.It's really up to Trump in terms of what he would accept.Pakistan has been mediating here.We've seen Vice President J .D.Vance be a part of this, as well as envoys Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner.

Let's bring in Ali Faiz, who is the Iran Projector Director for the International Crisis Group.Appreciate your time today.Good to be with you.So I want to get your reaction first to the Iranian state television report about this draft agreement, including major concessions, the withdrawal and reduction of U .of course changes to maritime restrictions. HowHow much of this reflects Iran's framing of a proposal rather than an actual negotiated draft?

Look, it is most probably framed in a way that is tilted more to Iran's interests than is truly the case.I'm sure the Iranians are also making a lot of concessions that are pretty painful in order to get this memorandum of understanding.Both sides have done one key important thing here, which is to prioritize the urgent over the important.The urgent is reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.and removing both the Iranian blockade and the U .S.

naval blockade.The Iranians would need it because they are not able to export their oil.The United States needs it because the energy prices are keep hiking at this moment and would affect the president and his party's electoral process.chances in November.And so overall, this is in the interest of both sides.And then they are giving themselves time and space to negotiate over the next 60 days about the important issue of the future of Iran's nuclear program.

I have to ask you about that, because the Strait of Hormuz certainly seems to be the centrepiece of this draft framework.Why is maritime access being prioritised ahead of that key, very sticky issue of Iran's nuclear program?

Look, because experience shows that given the degree of mistrust between the two sides, given the complexity of these issues, it is going to take quite a bit of time to negotiate a nuclear deal.Whereas, you know, a lot of countries in the global south are going to run out of fertilizer if the Strait of Hormuz does not open in the next few weeks.Basically, hundreds of thousands of people might lose their lives around the world because of food security concerns.So this is a major problem and it has to be resolved as soon as possible.But then, of course, Iran and the U .S.

, there's been 20 years of history of negotiations over the nuclear issue.This is going to be addressed over time.Look, it is not an ideal outcome, but it is the best off -ramp from a road that should not have been taken to begin with.

There are reports that Iran has allowed 25 or so vessels through the strait in the last day or so.But Iran says hostile vessels are still blocked in the Strait of Hormuz.If a deal is reached, which countries would those refer to?

Well, the United States and Israel, the two countries that launched a war against Iran, I think the Iranians are not going to allow U .S.warships to pass through or not going to allow vessels associated with Israel to pass through.But that really doesn't exclude the rest of the world.And again, here we're talking about 20 percent of global energy flows, 20 percent of fertilizer, helium, urea.So the things that are essential for the global economy, and if they don't pass through, we are going to have a global recession in the coming months.

Are any of the Gulf nations likely included under the banner of hostile nations?

Well, so far, despite the fact that tensions really were pretty high between the UAE and Iran, the Iranians have not framed the UAE as a hostile nation.And at the end of the day, the UAE is part of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Oman, which is also in the straight and foremost runs through territorial waters.is part of this understanding with Iran about the future framework of the Strait of Hormuz.And I'm sure that Oman is not going to throw another fellow GCC state under the bus.So if there is some sort of a framework that emerges out of this for the Strait, it is going to be inclusive, and it is hard to imagine that it would come at the expense of any of the littoral states.

You helped bridge the gaps that led to the 2015 nuclear deal.What is fundamentally different this time?

Well, a lot is different.You know, in 2015, there was basically political will on both sides to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.It did not follow a war of aggression.It did not follow basically demands of capitulation from one side or another.It was a positive constructive process.Whereas now we are in a situation that basically mistrust is at the highest level it has ever been.

And until recently, at least the United States still expected Iran to surrender to its terms.And also in that case in 2015, it took two and a half years of very arduous negotiations to reach a deal.So this is not going to be easy.This memorandum of understanding doesn't really fundamentally resolve issues.but it gets us to a more stable situation and buys time and space for the hard work of diplomacy to begin to try to address the longer term problems.