Is it Game Over For MBS’s Trillion Dollar Dream in Saudi Arabia? | Foreign Correspondent

Two months ago, the United States and Israel unleashed war on Iran.We learned just after a quarter past eight local time here that Israel had started attacking.

We're going to destroy their missiles and we're going to annihilate their navy.So lay down your arms or you will face certain death.

The Ayatollah has been assassinated as part of these strikes.I've been covering this conflict across the region.We've just had another alert come through that more Iranian missiles are on the way.Each day, Iran retaliated with multiple attacks against Israel.And it launched unprecedented strikes on its Gulf state neighbours, including Saudi Arabia.It looks like two drones have hit the US embassy in Riyadh in the diplomatic quarter there.

Over 37 days, 886 drones, 82 ballistic and nine cruise missiles were fired by Iran into the Saudi kingdom.The world's biggest oil exporter found its key pipeline under attack and its main export route, the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blocked.

It doesn't believe in talking to its neighbours.It tries to pressure its neighbours.And what I can say categorically, that's not going to work.The kingdom is not going to succumb to pressure.

Then, an uneasy ceasefire was brokered.Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, the kingdom has been undergoing a transformation.With its growing and predominantly young population of 35 million, the Petro State is being reshaped into an international powerhouse for tourism, technology, business.culture and trade.It's all part of a costly post -oil future called Vision 2030.

I mean, we're talking about trillions, absolute trillions.It's an eye -watering figure.It's absolutely staggering.But the ambition is staggering and the goals are really quite something.

Right before this war erupted, I came here to Saudi Arabia to see how this massive trillion -dollar transformation had been taking place at an extraordinary scale and speed, as well as to get a sense of just how reliant it was on a peaceful and stable region.Now I'm back to see how this war has impacted the kingdom and whether those grand plans for the future have been thrown into jeopardy.We're heading into Saudi Arabia at a strange time.There's a ceasefire.but no peace agreement, and tensions remain high across the region.

Throughout the hostilities, Riyadh became the main exit point for people fleeing the Gulf.

We're soon making our way into the capital, and there's no obvious signs of the conflict.The lifeblood of this economy, oil exports, dropped by more than half in the first weeks of the war.But Saudi Arabia has been able to bypass the chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz by shipping its oil out through the Red Sea.While some marquee events like the Formula One were cancelled, social media feeds have been full of announcements spruiking a blizzard of new trade routes, cultural events and the opening of upscale restaurants.The message was,life goes on as normal.

Reporting from the Gulf states is notoriously difficult.There are restrictions on the media and the sharing of information even during peacetime.At the height of war, people have been put on notice not to film and share what's going on, even on their phone.Saudi Arabia keeps a very close eye on what the outside world sees.G'day Neil, lovely to meet you.Good to meet you too.

I'm meeting up with Neil Quilliam.He's one of the world's foremost experts on energy policy and Middle Eastern politics.He's been visiting the Kingdom for the past 25 years, but he's never seen a moment like this.

For the past 10 years, Young Saudis, especially, have felt really empowered.They've really felt that their country has come into its own, and there's a very strong sense of nationalism and national identity.And this has come along and just really shaken that.It's almost shaken it to the core.It's shown that the country has key vulnerabilities.And despite all its defense spending, In spite of its relationship with the US, it can be targeted, it can be hit, and its economy has been shaken.

Why is stability so crucial for Saudi Arabia at this point in its history?

Saudi really wants to transform its economy.Since MBS became well Crown Prince.But even before that since it became an influential player in the country he's recognized that the country is dependent on hydrocarbons and looking ahead and looking forward wants to change the whole foundation of the economy.to make it a non oil driven economy.There are two key factors to that.One is that the vision is very much based on attracting foreign direct investment.

So getting foreign companies to come and to commit to the country long term.Secondly given that the country number one wants to attract and develop its tourist base, and number two, wants to be the host of international and regional events.Instability is a drag on that.

I think a lot of people have a fairly fixed view of what Saudi Arabia is.You're a man who has spent decades coming here.

How has it changed in your time?So it's changed unbelievably, and lots of people will tell you that, but it's... quite staggering what we've seen in the last 10 years.From a social point of view, it's changed tremendously.Anywhere you go in the city at the moment, it's cranes, it's banging, it's noise.There's tremendous growth taking place.In Saudi Arabia, what we're seeing now is a very strong sense of pride.

And it's like, this is what we're doing.If you don't like us, we don't care.

Back in early February, only three weeks before the war began, I left the city for the desert sands to see how Vision 2030 was coming to life.It didn't take long to leave the skyscrapers and the traffic of Riyadh behind.

This might be the Saudi Arabia you imagine.

Remote, desolate, certainly off the beaten track.My destination was the natural wonder called Egypt.the World, and it's not hard to see why.The tourists queuing for selfies here were part of what has been a record -breaking surge in international visitors to the kingdom.Some 30 million visited in 2024 alone, which is all the more remarkable considering Saudi Arabia only began welcoming tourists in late 2019.Today, tourism is a central part of Vision 2030, with the ultimate goal of attracting 70 million tourists per year.

And to do that, MBS has gone big.Gigaproject big.This is Qadir, a new city emerging out of the desert, costing almost $56 billion.Hotels, shopping centres, film studios, concert venues and a golf course, and then perched above it all, the Prince Mohammed bin Salman Stadium, to be ready in time for the 2034 World Cup.If and when it's complete, the city will cover more than 360 square kilometres.It's quite remarkable to find ourselves here surrounded by massive cliff faces.

I mean, just look at this location.This is pretty wild.This gives you a real sense of what the Saudis are trying to achieve.The site is owned by the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund, the PIF, worth more than $1 .5 trillion.It's old -school oil money building Vision 2030.The first stage of Qadir only opened four months ago.

A theme park created by American juggernaut Six FlagsIt took four years to build, with a price tag of more than a billion.And Neil Dwyer has overseen it take shape.

When I got a call about the project and they took me through what was happening and what they wanted to build and what the ambition was.Truly spectacular.And then to work with the local Saudis who want that in their country, the ambition that the local teams have to be special on the world stage, and we've achieved that today.Look around and see what's here.

There are more than a million expats like Neil working on projects across the kingdom.

It's a new industry for Saudi Arabia, so passing on the knowledge and training and developing the Saudi population is something that's been incredibly important to us and something that we've really made since day one an important factor.

The centrepiece of the park is this.

I don't think I could hold on any tighter.

The world's fastest, longest and tallest roller coaster.No.No.And it hits a vomit -inducing 250 kilometres per hour.Oh, no.Oh, no.

It's the longest three minutes of my life.

I'm shaking.

Look, it's a remarkable feat of engineering.I'll give you that much.You want to go again?Nope.But not all Vision 2030 projects are going to plan.

Why does the world need...

That's a good question.

The world needs me, um...

The most famous and ambitious within New Zealand.a revolutionary city called The Line, the showpiece of MBS's vision.

Designed by world -leading architects, The Line is 500 metres tall, 200 metres wide, 170 kilometres long, and housed within an elegant mirror -glass façade.

And its price tag, reportedly a staggering $5 .9 trillion.But after sinking $80 billion into NEOM, the development has been dramatically scaled back to something much more modest.Vision 2030 needs more than Saudi oil money.They're seeking nearly $140 billion in foreign investment.And there was a time, not so long ago, when finding that cash seemed impossible.

They call it Davos in the Desert, a high -profile investment conference that attracts some of the biggest names in global finance.Only now, several significant figures have announced they won't be attending, and key media partners have withdrawn.They cite serious concerns over reports that journalist Jamal Khashoggi may have been murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 is not something you can talk about in Saudi Arabia.

Hi, James.How are you going?Hello.

James Montague is a British author and journalist who's been reporting on the changing face of Saudi Arabia for the past 18 years.

But, you know, what I think MBS and certainly his cadre of followers and people around him worked out is that ultimately, the West, they followed the money and they came back.And ultimately, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, as close as it came to ruining MBS's reputation, the world moved past it.it's almost difficult to imagine any single act thatSaudi Arabia could do that could stop people wanting to make business with it, especially when you have Trump in the White House and will be there for a few more years.

In November last year, President Trump welcomed the Crown Prince to Washington, his first visit since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

Your Royal Highness, the U .S.intelligence concluded that you orchestrated the brutal murder of a journalist.

You're mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial.A lot of people didn't like that gentleman that you're talking about.Whether you like him or didn't like him, things happen.But he knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.You don't have to embarrass our guest by asking a question like that.

It's painful, and it's a huge mistake, and we are doing our best that this doesn't happen again.

Since King Salman ascended to the throne in 2015, which brought with him his son, Mohammed bin Salman, who's now the crown prince, there has been a cultural revolution in the country.When I went back for the first time since 2008, I got to the airport.There was a woman working at the border stamping my passport.Women were driving.Women are in public life.Women are allowed in football stadiums.

Women are allowed to have jobs.I mean, there was still, you know, not total equality in the country, but the shift from 2008 to 2024 was something that I don't think I've ever seen anywhere else, and I never thought possible, really, in Saudi society, given how conservative it was and how difficult it was to enact even the most incremental change.Are they window -dressing here?Yeah.One exile told me, these cultural freedoms, they're just, it's glitter, because none of these powers and none of these changes are enshrined in laws.There's no constitution.

So what could be given with one hand can be taken away with one hand as well.

Lama al -Hamawi is part of a new generation of young Saudis living life in a way her mother could never have imagined.

I love some of these houses and all that.Some of them are really beautiful.

The architecture is just gorgeous.

Women were banned from driving here until June 2018 after decades of protests from women, some of whom were jailed for their activism.

I love how the world still hones in on women are driving, women are driving.We've reached a point where we don't want to drive anymore.It's OK.We have the right to.Do we want to?I don't know.

Everyone that I know has drivers.We're relaxing the back seats, sending emails.

Lama is the head of diplomacy and foreign affairs at the state -backed Arab News.She says the view of Saudi Arabia as an oppressive regime is outdated.

And if you look at any interviews Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has ever done, He always focuses on the youth, he always focuses on the people of the kingdom.It's about improving their quality of life.That's quite literally what the main base focus of Vision 2030 was.

On a weekend in Riyadh, 30 -year -old Hala Abdallah is doing what many young Saudis now do here, getting ready for a night out with friends.

People don't know what's actually happening in here.Us citizens, sometimes we get surprised when we find a new area or something new is being built.Now when I go through King Fahd Way and see the skyscrapers, honestly, I feel so much prouder.I'm proud that I'm Saudi.I'm proud that I'm living in this era where Saudi is actually evolving and developing.

When you talk to your family about this,in Saudi, how do they feel about what's going on?

I know that maybe the older generations are having, I don't know, a bit of difficulty to adapt to the new situation that's happening, but we're all adapting.And it's very nice.

Saudi Arabia has long held the title of the world's biggest oil exporter.and now it wants to dominate another industry, gaming.This is Boulevard City in Riyadh, with its purpose -built esports precinct.An estimated $51 .5 billion is being poured into the sector, with a plan to make it the global hub for gaming by 2030.An estimated 67 % of the population are gamers, including the Crown Prince.In September, the Saudis partnered with Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump's son -in -law, to buy one of the most successful gaming companies in the world, Electronic Arts.

Ahmed Al -Hassan runs The Vicious, a winning eSport team.

So if you are a young player with a huge potential, with a talent that is presented at the moment, the big names of the industry will fight to have you signing for their team.And no -one is more keen on this plan than MBS.The Crown Prince himself is a gamer and he proudly mentioned that on multiple occasions.So the support for the youth and for the eSports industry comes directly from the Crown Prince himself.

Saudi Arabia funds and hosts the newly created annual eSports World Cup.

Your Royal Highness, it is with deep gratitude and honour that we invite you to hand the trophy to the champions.

MBS did the honours last year when Saudi Arabia's Team Falcons won the championship.

Give it up for your 2025 EWC Club Champions, Team Falcons!

Mike McCabe is the World Cup's Chief Operating Officer.

So last year we had over 3 .2 million people coming through these venues over the course of those seven weeks.And then from a broadcast perspective, we had 750 million people around the world viewing the content that we'd produced over the course of those seven weeks.

And Mike McCabe has witnessed the Crown Prince's gaming IQ at a boardroom level.

I've been making games for 20 years and when I when we have conversations he's very deep into the detail which is amazing as well.It's not just about putting on a show.It's about building legacy and being able to build pathways for that young population as part of Vision 2030 to be able to build those pathways to build careers build industry and be able to take that all over the world.

On a Friday evening in a small city 350 kilometres away from Riyadh, a football game was getting underway.In front of a modest but enthusiastic crowd, one of sport's true global superstars made his entrance.41 -year -old Portuguese legend, Cristiano Ronaldo.By world football standards, this is a small stadium.It's not necessarily where you would expect a superstar like Cristiano Ronaldo.to be gracing the stage.

But this is Saudi Arabia.The money here can buy anyone.

And that's why the highest -paid athlete in the world is on the field right behind me.

Saudi Arabia has invested in sport big time.From boxing to golf to tennis and Formula One, the aim is to make the nation the world's premier sports destination.Ronaldo captains Al Nasser in the Saudi Domestic League.He's called the country home for the last three years.Their opponents tonight are league newcomers Al -Khaloud, owned by American businessman Ben Harberg.See, we have the girls here.

You're looking at a kid sitting up here.They're all mobbing you.They all seem to know you by name as well.How important is this, being the owner of the club, coming up and spending time with the fans?This is the future of our club.Ben is the first foreigner to own a Saudi football club.

he bought in at the invitation of the Saudi government.

Just a few years ago we had like 13 % participation in sports and now that's gone up to like 56%.So a huge part of this is building a next generation of fans that will fill hopefully this whole stadium in the coming years.

You pointed out the girls are here as well.You've got something quite different when you think about how Saudi has evolved in the last little while.

Absolutely.We're in a more conservative province so actually the fact that they're mixed among us is already a privilege.Usually they're kind of sitting by choice kind of off to the side here but now in this crowd you can see them integrated in, we have a lot of moms bringing their kids, so we need that and that's why I'm going to start a women's football club too, or buy one, because we've got to have that 50 % represented on our team.

I don't mean to point out the score, but you are 2 -0 down.How are you feeling at this point in the game?

Well, people asked me before the match what my prediction for the match was, and I said we were going to lose 2 -0.

Al -Khaloud eventually went down 3 -0.Throughout the hostilities, football has continued.After a brief trip abroad for medical treatment, Ronaldo returned to play.Thanks to its investments, Saudi Arabia holds a very powerful place in the sporting world.Danny Townsend used to run Australia's Soccer A -Leagues.Today, he's in charge of bringing in many of the world's biggest sporting franchises.

There has been a lot of criticism of Saudi Arabia, its human rights record in the past, phrases like sport washing.Are those concerns valid?

We can't change the past.No one can change the past.What we're here to do is change the future.And that's, like I said, an incumbent on us as an expat to come here, work here, be a part of that change.When I first came here two and a half years ago, you'd read about sports washing.I think even the Crown Prince said, call it what you want.

We're about investing in things that are going to drive the GDP of Saudi Arabia and hit some of those well -being metrics that we want to hit.He's not going to apologize for that.I'm certainly not going to apologize for that, because sport is fantastic at being able to deliver on those objectives.And I think, like I go back to that point around reputation, sport has a very unique way of accelerating social change and driving reputational shift.

How do you see this in 10, 20 years time?

Well, if the last two and a half is anything to go by, it's going to be dramatically different, both from the way it looks, but the way it operates.The impact we're going to have on the global sport economy is going to be significant.And I think the legacy we'll create there will be profound for the people of Saudi Arabia.

Just weeks before the war began, Saudi Arabia was hosting one of the biggest arms and military equipment exhibitions in the world.By the week's end, the Saudis had signed defence contracts worth more than $11 billion.Two weeks later, the US and Israel began their war against Iran.Watching events unfold from Washington is Michael Ratney.How are you, Michael?I'm OK.

It's very hot in Washington, DC.the Biden administration's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, who left the post in January last year.He hasn't been replaced.

I think they were stunned, and now I think they're deeply nervous about what happens.Is there an escalation?Is there an imperfect end that they sort of have to pay the price of?Is Trump prepared, you know, to, quote -unquote, finish the job, if such a thing is even possible?Just all uncertainty right now.

From what you know of the Crown Prince, himself.How do you think he would have been viewing this conflict?

I think probably from the beginning, he didn't think it was a good idea for the US and Israel to go to war.I think they have deep, deep distrust of the Iranians.They know the sort of trouble that they cause to Saudi and to the rest of the region.But I think all of the things that have happened, I think the Saudis could have predicted those, would have predicted those easily.

You know this region incredibly well.

Is this a situation you ever I thought about it, and I've been reminded why for years there has been talk of military strikes against the Iranians.but always a decision not to move ahead with it because I think all of these outgrowths, all of these manifestations of it were thought through by the U .S.S.military and by others that knew this was possible.The fact is we ended up having a president that didn't pay heed to those warnings or knew about it and felt it was a risk worth taking.I think what we're seeing now is a wholly predictable outgrowth of the decision to wage war on the Iranians.

It doesn't get the Iranians off the hook.They've been involved in some truly evil stuff in the region.And I think everybody would be better off with a different kind of government there.But clearly the ability to affect that is not as easy as Trump thought it might be.

So what do you think the worst case scenario is?More war.As I prepared to leave Saudi Arabia, a major announcement came through.Vision 2030 would undergo a cut in spending and refocus its priorities.Speculation was rife that the controversial LiveGolf tour would be the next thing to be axed.Neil, good to see you again.

Good to see you.Taking in the sights of a growing city.

Absolutely.Look at it.It's expanding.

I caught up again with Neil Quilliam.So Neil, there's been a development, a bit of an announcement about how Saudi Arabia is doing that recalibration of its spending here.So why now?

Two things.I don't believe the strategy was just cooked up in the last three or four weeks, but the economy was already beginning to contract.young siders were always already beginning to sort of be laid off in the economy.So there had to be a recalibration, a refocus.And then obviously with the conflict, that's really kind of pushed the moment that they need to unveil the strategy.Tell us what you understand about it.

The focus now is much more domestic.It used to be international.PIF was all about the big splash events.But now there's a real sort of crunch and it has to focus on developing the local economy, making sure that the beneficiaries of the PIF strategy and also Vision 2030 are the population, but not just the urban elite, those out in the provinces.

Is saying that they're not going to be cancelling projects immediately, is that kind of kicking the can down the road a little bit as well, when we've heard so much about maybe Neom being scoured back or having elements of that cancelled?

Yeah, no, I think it is kicking the can down the road.I mean, I think there probably is a desire just to wind those up, but they can't come out at this particular moment, because that looks like they're admitting defeat.So it's sort of putting them on ice, in effect, and just saying, we are going to focus on what's really important at the moment, and those are the domestic issues.

Saudi Arabia's lofty ambition has been on a collision course with reality for some time.And this unprecedented war has sped that journey up.The years ahead will test the country's resolve and whether its future king can deliver on his vision.