Is This Why Farage Has Been Hiding?

Hi, my name's Phil.I like to talk about politics.And there's just been some polling dropped, which may surprise you.It's certainly given Reform UK a few nightmares.So there's a vital by -election campaign which could see Andy Burnham return to Parliament and revive Labour's fortunes.Reform UK, who people see as the heir apparent for government, are the alternative to Burnham in this specific contest.

So Reform UK desperately want to win this by -election, right?Of course they do.If they win, they not only get another MP, but the chance to show momentum towards government.If they lose, Labour become way stronger rivals for them, or so many of us believe.I guess that depends on your assessment of Andy Burnham.So given that Reform UK are a personality cult, why isn't Nigel Farage out campaigning hard for this seat?

He's put out a few private video messages, sure, but he's not actually been seen campaigning.In fact, he's not been seen in public at all for some time.Would it have something to do with new polling from Ipsos and Moray, which Reform UK will know themselves from their own internal polling?I mean, take a look at this.Their recent polling shows that the public would prefer a Labour government over a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage, even if, that Labour government was still led by Keir Starmer.In fact, one sobering result of this poll for Labour is that although the public wants to give Burnham a chance, they'd prefer a Burnham -led Labour government, if he does fail to get elected, they'd rather Starmer over either Streeting or Rayner, the two obvious alternatives.

And yet the public would still prefer Rayner or Streeting leading the government over Farage.This is what the country actually thinks.And just to be clear, Ipsos are an S tier pollster.They are very well respected in the industry.So why is it?if people are desperate for change and don't think Labour is delivering it?

Because being clear, the polling results do show that the public are absolutely not happy with Starmer or Labour.It's not just that that's a false impression given by the media, that is true, but the public would still prefer them to a Farage -led reform UK government.Now, part of the problem is Reform UK itself.They are just too nasty a party for a lot of moderate voters who do not want concentration camps in their country and do not want hundreds of thousands, if not in excess, of a million people being deported.They will vote tactically to stop them.But part of the reason is that Nigel Farage himself, his personal ratings are tanking.

Now, let's just step back for a moment and consider this strategically.Nigel Farage has not been out on the campaign trail for well over a week now.That's a fact.The Makerfield by -election is stunningly important for Reform UK.They are desperate to win, even more desperate for Burnham to lose.They will know as well as I do that polling shows Burnham has the best chance of connecting with the public.

In fact, Andy Burnham is the single most popular political figure in the country right now.He's the only one with positive approval ratings.Facts.The betting odds have consistently shown Burnham is the most likely to win, so it's not even like Reform UK are ahead and just need to not foul things up.Labour are currently believed to be ahead, and the odds have actually shifted more in his favour as the campaign has progressed.

Now, betting odds are not just based on probabilities of success, but they are part of the picture, and we have constituency polling that also shows Labour a bit ahead as well.Basically, all the evidence suggests Labour is not miles ahead but it is ahead.Why isn't Nigel Farage throwing everything at this by -election?Well I'm sure he is.He really needs to win this.So why isn't Nigel Farage

Reform UK's greatest asset, throwing himself into the campaign?I mean, let's consider possibilities.Maybe he's worn out after the May elections campaign.Maybe his doctors told him to rest.He did campaign hard there.He was up and down the country.

And he is a man in his 60s with a long history of drinking and smoking heavily.However, if that's the reason, that would suggest that Farage's fitness is failing.and that he could be in real trouble come 2029.Maybe that's why he keeps talking about a general election happening much sooner, which it's not going to, because he doesn't think he can last much longer.But another possibility is that Reform UK are putting their newfound millions to good use, hiring data scientists who are unveiling some of the same information we're getting through via the publicly available polling.that Nigel Farage is being diminished as an asset for his party.

With Reform UK looking like losing a chunk of the crazy vote to Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain in Makefield, with backing from Elon Musk, perhaps Reform UK strategists are more desperate for the moderate voters in Makefield by election?I mean, these sort of votes will always be the most valuable anyway.A vote that might otherwise have gone to Burnham is worth two votes for Reform UK.Perhaps they're seeing that Farage is not appealing to these sort of target voters, and so he's producing video campaign messages to make it look like he's campaigning, but they're only going to be targeted at certain types of voter on social media, but otherwise keeping him away from the campaign.What other explanation could there be for why Nigel Farage, who has spent years looking like he absolutely loves being on the campaign trail, hiding away from one of the most important ones he will ever find?Burnham losing would crush Labour's morale in more ways than one.

Reform UK need to fight this witheverything they have.That is indisputable.So why isn't Farage front and centre of that campaign if he is his party's greatest asset?The answer could be in these polls which show that the public's attitudes are not quite what the media are presenting and that this is shown elsewhere in the poll.The polling does show that most people think, Reform UK or a plurality of people think, that Reform UK will probably win the next election.

But it also shows that they don't want it to.But who determines who wins?Voters.Why do they think Reform UK is more likely to win?Because the media is telling them.Finally, for regular viewers, I will just point out I'm in London for the next few days at South by Southwest.

So if there's any mad breaking news in the next few days, I'm not on it.I'm trying to get content out ahead of time.The schedule may or may not be a little reduced as well.I can't tell quite at this point.But what do you think of the reason for Farah's absence from the campaign trail?Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

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