Kornacki: Democrats look to overperform in Tennessee special election

Welcome back. If it's Tuesday, voters are voting somewhere and today that somewhere is Tennessee's 7th congressional district. Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Afton Bean are competing in a special election for a seat held by former Representative Mark Green, who retired earlier this year, hoping to build on the momentum from last month's elections victories. Democrats see an opportunity to put up a strong challenge in this deep red

district. Republicans appear to be feeling the heat. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson traveled to Tennessee yesterday to campaign with Van Epps and President Trump appeared at a tele-rally last night. Joining me now from Nashville, Tennessee is NBC's Mel Zunona and of course Steve Kornacki is where else?

At the big board. Mel, you're on the ground there in Tennessee. You spoke to the Democratic candidate in this race who's forced Republicans to step in and help defend this seat.

What did she tell you?

Well, she knows this would be an upset and a long shot for her to win here in the heart of Trump country, but she believes the fact that it's even close and competitive shows how dissatisfied voters are with the cost of living and how dissatisfied they are with the current Trump administration.

She has been running a campaign focused relentlessly on the cost of living as well as health care. And she thinks that even if she loses but is able to keep the race close, that that should be a massive warning sign for Republicans ahead of the midterms, given this is a district that Trump carried by 22 points. Just watch what she told me.

And now it's within single digits. It is, once again, a testament to the fact that this administration hasn't delivered.

Do you think the electorate is ready to embrace someone who is not only Democratic, but perhaps more progressive than they've been used to in the past?

Yeah, I think so. I think voters in this district have given me a lot of grace and I've definitely matured. I was an organizer, activist, a public private citizen before I was a lawmaker. And as a state legislator, I represent 60,000 voters. As the next congresswoman for this district, I'll represent 700,000 of which, you know, there's a lot of different, varying political opinions.

Now Republicans have tried to say that she is far too extreme for this district, and they have highlighted her past calls to defend the police. So I asked her whether she still maintains that position, but she largely dodged saying it

depends on what the community wants.

Interesting, so what is driving this momentum for the Democrats? Mel, is it a continuation of the affordability message that we saw dominate last month's elections?

Ryan, one thing I've heard consistently from voters today is that they are concerned about the cost of living and that it is simply harder to pay their bills, to buy their groceries, and to put food on the table. That was a similar dynamic we did see in both Virginia and New Jersey

during those governor races, where Democrats did have big victories last month. And it is no different here in Nashville.

Just watch.

Jobs, mostly jobs, the high cost of food, gas, you know, everything. Job, mainly jobs.

It's not as easy for lower income, middle income people these days. So that's a big part of my concern. Things are getting very expensive. I am still able to make it. However, things are getting really, really expensive.

And Trump, of course, is the one who ran on lowering costs for Americans, making life more affordable. But so far this year, year at least it's been Democrats who have successfully campaigned and capitalized on that very issue.

Okay, Melanie's an own out live in Nashville, no thanks for that let's now go to the big board and Steve give us a reality check here. How are Democrats chances looking in Tennessee mean this would still be a massive upset when it. It would be a massive upset if they do win. But yes, there has been some polling

here showing a close race and again. The backdrop you heard there. Donald Trump last year he won this district by 22 points now. Four years earlier in 2020 when Trump lost the presidential election to Joe Biden,

he still won this district, but it was only 15 points then. So you know already that you hear that 22, but it's been closer than that before and there have been some local contests in this area. A couple of them were democrats have done even a little bit better than that. So where's the action going to be tonight as the results start to come in? I think one way to look at this is this is where

we're talking about middle Tennessee right here, about a quarter of the city of Nashville. That's Davidson County is in this district. This is going to be one of the only maybe the only blue spots you see on the map tonight, but it's going to be very blue. The question here is going to be, can Bain run up the score massively in the Democratic part of this district in Nashville and in Davidson County? A lot of rural areas here, ex urban areas where it's going to be very, very Republican red tonight. And I think sort of the swing area of this district that I'm going to be looking at is right here. This is

Montgomery County. This is where Clarksville is. This is the other major population center in the district. And I think, look, if Bain is going to have any chance of actually pulling off the upset and winning tonight. She probably needs to be winning in this county. There probably need to be two blue counties by the end of the night. That would be Davidson County and then that would be Montgomery County.

If she's actually going to win this, so we'll see as the as the story unfolds tonight. But again, the backdrop for this, why this is even close. One thing we have been seeing in special elections this year,

special congressional elections. Democrats have been overperforming relative to last year's presidential election. Take a look at this in April. There was a pair of special congressional elections in Florida. Now Republicans won both of them. They won both of them solidly.

15 point margin in one of them, 14 in the other. But this is what it had been in the 2020. 2024 presidential election. So from a 37-point Republican win in Florida's 1st District in 2024, down to 15 in the special election, that was a gain for the Democrats of 22 points.

Didn't win it, but they made up a lot of ground. Look, from 30 to 14, Democrats made up 16 points in Florida's 6th District. We've seen this even where Democrats have won this year, they've won bigger than they did in 2024. Look at this district in Arizona. Kamala Harris had won it by 22. Democrats won it by 40 this year. They gained 18 points from a 34-point Democratic win in this Virginia district to 50 this year. That's a 16-point Democratic gain. So, 22, 16, 18, 16, you see a pattern here.

And again again this district where it was 22 points for Donald Trump. If democrats are getting anywhere around that kind of gain that they've gotten elsewhere this year, then this does become a competitive single digit race. Now again to erase all of 22 points that might be a bit more of a stretch here, but it does speak to a political climate that we've seen in these special elections that we saw in the New Jersey and Virginia results

where Democrats, you know, one landslide, unexpected landslides and it does call to mind this is a back to Trump's first term here. We're going back to 2018 here. March 2018. There was a special election in Trump's first term. Okay, where Donald Trump had a 41% approval rating. He had won the district by 20 points. And remember this name, Conor Lamb. Conor Lamb won the special election in that district that had voted for Trump by 20 points

in March of 2018. That was a harbinger. That proved to be a harbinger for the blue wave that fall when Democrats gained 40 seats, flipped control of the House. Here we are now, December 2025. Remember, Trump's approval rating was 41.

Then it's not too far off that now. It's 42 five and it has been edging down this fall. We're in a district that's only a little bit more Republican than that Pennsylvania one is.

So again, that is the backdrop. Democrats would love obviously to actually win this night to be able to do what Conor Lamb did in 2018. If not, they want to keep it close. They want to say it's another sign of Republican weakness. Republicans, they don't just want to win. They want to win by double digits tonight. They want to put up a sound way and say, hey, for all that talk about

the close race for that poll you saw showing a close race, they want to be able to say, hey, that attack on Bain as too far left, it actually worked and it could work next year. the close race for that poll you saw showing a close race, they want to be able to say, hey, that attack on Bain as too far left, it actually worked and it could work next year. OK, Steve Kordacki, thank you.