Putin Is Doing EXACTLY What He Did Before Invading Ukraine… This Time in Moldova

Of all the open wounds left on the Eurasian landmass following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova remains one of the most understated yet important potential flashpoints.For two centuries, the nation considered to be among Europe's poorest has been gripped by a struggle between East and West, or more precisely, Europe and Russia.Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin threw more wood on this slow -burning fire.Russian media and several international outlets reported that Putin issued a decree fast -tracking citizenship for residents of the breakaway Russia -aligned region of Transnistria, a strip of strategically important land nestled between Moldova and Ukraine.The move has inflamed tensions that have been rising dramatically since the beginning of the year and prompted a tough response from Moldovan President Maja Sandu.Here's why Putin pulled this move, how Moldova, and Sandu in particular, have responded, and what these latest developments mean for the future of the region.

The roots of the problem trace directly back to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s.However, there's a case to be made that Moldova's problems with Russia stretch back to 1812, when Bessarabia, the eastern part of what was then known as Moldavia, was ceded to the Russian Empire at the conclusion of a war won by the Russians.The Moldovans in the main were never really settled under Russian rule.Historically and culturally, the majority of ethnic Moldovans are more aligned with neighboring Romania.Indeed, differences between the Moldovan and Romanian languages are, in a linguistic sense, mostly cosmetic.In 1918, in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution, Bessarabia briefly became independent as the Moldavian Democratic Republic and united with Romania, but sovereignty proved to be short -lived.

During World War II, the Soviet Union occupied the territory and formed the Moldovian Soviet Socialist Republic.When the Soviet Union started collapsing in 1989, the Moldovans seized the moment and moved towards independence again.And that's when the current troubles started.Transnistria, the roughly 1 ,600 square mile territory on the left bank of the Dniester River, opposed the surging Moldovan nationalism.Things got even hotter when the Moldovans passed a law enshrining Moldovan as the official language and replacing the Cyrillic alphabet with a Latin script.The majority of the population on the left bank primarily used Russian to communicate.

So ordinary Transnistrians, particularly those in the significant Russian and Ukrainian minorities, were perhaps legitimately worried about being sidelined under the new language regime and organized protests.More pertinently, Transnistria had become the industrial hub of Moldova under Soviet rule, and the elites had become increasingly powerful politically as a result.They could see the writing on the wall as power shifted westwards.When Moldova adopted a declaration of sovereignty in 1990, the Transnistrians declared themselves an autonomous republic.the Dniester -Moldovan Autonomous Republic.A short civil war broke out, complicated by the involvement of the Soviet 14th Army, which had long been stationed in Transnistria.

The Moldovans issued a decree that transferred all former Soviet military troops and equipment to the emerging Moldovan Defense Forces.

The 14th Army ignored it.Then, Russian President Boris Yeltsin transferred the forces under the control of the Russian Federation.The 14th Army then joined the side of the separatists, inflicting several key defeats on Moldovan forces that ensured the territorial integrity of the breakaway region.

In the end, a peace accord was signed in July 1992, and negotiations to settle the conflict permanently began.Unfortunately, 34 years later, we seem to be as far away from a permanent, amicable settlement as ever.Various attempts have been made under successive governments on both sides to reach a lasting peace and mutually acceptable territorial arrangements, but none have ultimately worked.Both sides blame the other for the failures.But crucially, Transnistria remains a region heavily dominatedby Russia.

Demographically, the region is divided roughly equally between ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, and Moldovans, with a sprinkling of Gagauz and Bulgarians.The region's official languages of Russian, Moldovan, and Ukrainian reflect this diversity, but Russian is the de facto primary language used in government, education, and daily life.More importantly, 1 ,500 soldiers of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria, or OGRF, remain permanently stationed in Transnistria.These troops used to be rotated every six months, but Moldova and Ukraine have been blocking Russian rotation attempts ever since 2022.Most of them are based at the decommissioned Soviet ammunition depot in the village of Kobazna.Situated just over a mile from the Ukrainian border, this massive weapons store is the largest in Eastern Europe.

with around 22 ,000 tons of military equipment guarded by the Russian troops.As you can imagine, this huge stockpile of weapons is an open sore for both Moldova and Ukraine.No one besides the Transnistrian and Russian authorities really knows what's stored there, or what kind of state it's in.

Much of it is undoubtedly way past its sell -by date, having been there from anywhere from 35 to 75 years.And what's going on in Ukraine isn't helping things.With a highly destructive war taking place literally a few miles away, authorities fear the consequences of an accidental strike on the depot.With so much potentially dodgy ammunition stored there, the Academy of Sciences in Moldova determined in 2015 that an explosion at Kobazna would be equivalent to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Russians, Ukrainians and Moldovans all also fear that the working ammunition and equipment stored there might be introduced into the war, potentially drawing Moldova into the conflict.It's a difficult problem to solve with all the concerned parties pulling in different directions.The Moldovans would like the arms and troops removed.But that's just not possible while the war in Ukraine is raging.The Transnistrian authorities are on the move.to want to keep both as a kind of security guarantee against potential Moldovan attempts to reunify the region by force.

The Ukrainians would, in all likelihood, love to kill the troops and seize the gear, and the Russians have long been trying to leverage the situation to their advantage, as the Russian leadership is prone to do.Now, for much of Moldova's post -independence period, the Transnistria issue was allowed to more or less slide.Moldovan governments tended to swing between pro -Russian and outright oligarch -controlled regimes, with neither having a strong incentive to close the chapter permanently.

But all that changed decisively when Maja Sandu took office in 2020.Sandu is unequivocally not pro -Russian.She came to power on a pro -Western, anti -corruption platform, and has vigorously plotted a course towards EU and possibly even NATO integration.

Moldova originally signed an association agreement with the European Union in 2014, but under Sandu's leadership, the quest for EU membership has had a rocket placed under it.In March 2022, Moldova applied for its EU membership and was officially granted candidate status three months later.In June of the following year, Moldova signed a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Free Trade Association, with formal accession talks commencing in December of that year.A referendum on Moldova joining the EU was then held in 2024.Amidst widespread allegations of outside interference and vote manipulation by criminal groups, predominantly by Russian or Russian -aligned parties, a narrow 50 .17 % voted yes.With the green light secured from the populace, the work that needs to be done to meet the EU's strict admission criteria is in full swing.

and the Transnistria issue presents one of the major stumbling blocks.We've seen this story before in Georgia and Ukraine.Now, Russia is using the same tactic to stymie, or at least delay indefinitely, Moldova's hopes of joining the EU.

Here's how the strategy works.To meet the strict post -1993 Copenhagen criteria,Moldova must prove that it has a stable democracy, a functioning market economy, and the capacity to implement and uphold EU law throughout its territory.Like all former Soviet states, it inherited a decidedly non -market -based economy, mired in corruption.And like most of these states, oligarchs stepped into the gap left by the communists, entrenching and expanding the corruption, inequality, and lawlessness.It's no easy task overcoming these major structural issues as the poorest nation in Europe, even with much support from the EU and the United Nations Development Programme.

Ukraine may have the dubious honour of having the lowest average wage in Europe, and North Macedonia, Montenegro, Andorra and San Marino may have smaller GDPs, but in terms of the most significant measure, GDP per capita on a purchasing power parity basis, i .

e.the amount of GDP generated per person in local currency, Moldova ranks among the lowest in Europe overall.

To meet the Copenhagen criteria, Moldova still needs to deepen judicial reform, strengthen the rule of law, combat entrenched corruption, and complete de -oligarchization.No easy feat.

The country also needs to align its legislation across all 35 negotiation chapters, enhance public administration, and ensure cyber security and energy independence.What's more, these measures need to be applied across the entire territory of the applicant country.And that's what makes the Transnistria issue the biggest impediment to Moldova's EU accession.You can't guarantee universal application of EU requirements across your territory when a strategically important chunk of it is de facto outside of your control.Don't waste your valuable viewing time on videos that just regurgitate the headlines like everyone else.

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the EU has signaled that the existence of an autonomous region like Transnistria doesn't slam the door shut on EU membership in and of itself.Cyprus, the UK, and West Germany all joined the EU with ongoing territorial disputes in progress, after all.Cyprus is still divided today.But those nations all joined the EU pre -Copenhagen, and the rules have tightened substantially since.So the resolution of the Transnistria affair, one way or the other, is a top priority for Sandu as she drives her country west.How does she aim to accomplish it?

Officially, she aims to peacefully reintegrate the region into Moldova through a process centered on demilitarization, deoligarchization, and democratization.She advocates for the establishment of an international mechanism with support from the EU to oversee this transition, arguing that the continued presence of Russian forces constitutes a significant security obstacle.Unofficially, she's shown that her bite is much nastier than her bark.Moldova is required by its constitution to remain neutral and not to allow the deployment of foreign forces on its territory.changing its neutral status requires a national referendum.That's unlikely, since the majority of Moldovans support preserving its neutral status.

A June 2023 poll showed that 28 % would vote in a hypothetical referendum in favor of Moldova's accession to NATO, while 60 .3 % would vote against.But while she has stopped well short of overtly breaching neutrality by supplying military aid to Ukraine or allowing Ukrainian forces into Moldova, She's been a fervent and unambiguous supporter of Ukraine in its attempts to repel the Russian invasion.And since January, in conjunction with Ukraine, she's been tightening the economic noose around Transnistria's neck.At midnight on January 1st, Ukraine began enacting strict controls along the roughly 280 -mile border with Transnistria, requiring inspections for any permitted movement of goods or people.Simultaneously, Moldovan authorities strengthened checkpoints and expanded border enforcement, using mobile units to support controls beyond fixed crossings.

Exactly two years earlier, on January 1st, 2024, Sandu's government had imposed taxes on imports and exports to and from Transnistria, prompting separatist leader Vadim Krasnozelsky to accuse Moldova of waging an economic blockade against the region.It wasn't the first time that he'd made such claims, but this time he was basically right.

Coupled with energy supply disruptions following the unexpected loss of Russian gas subsidies the following January, the move hit Transnistria's economy hard.In 2025, the economy contracted by almost 18%, with industrial production down by 27 .3%, foreign trade turnover down by 28 .5%, and inflation shooting up to 14 .7%.And as a result of these new border control actions, the outlook for 2026 isn't much better.The coordinated blockade by Ukraine and Moldova has turned Transnistria from a grey zone Russia could manage quietly into a controlled space where outside support becomes highly visible and easy to stop.The years, much of the Russian support for Transnistria moved through informal trade routes, friendly businesses and loose customs checks that avoided full Moldovan control.By shutting these routes down, Moldova and Ukraine have made Russia's presence harder to sustain and far less effective as a tool of pressure against EU integration.

The move clearly infuriated Putin, and he reacted by upping the ante.First, he moved to make it easier for him to legally deploy Russian forces abroad.

On May 13th, the Russian state Duma passed a law granting him the authority to deploy Russian troops abroad to protect Russian citizens who are arrested, detained, or prosecuted by foreign courts or international judicial bodies not recognized by Moscow.Moscow doesn't recognize the government in Kiev as legitimate, and it doesn't appear to be far from withdrawing its recognition of Sandu's government either.Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova made it clear that the move was at least in part aimed squarely at Kizilnau.Any aggression against our fellow citizens living in Transnistria will receive an immediate and adequate response, she stated during a press briefing, adding that Moscow is prepared to use all necessary means to ensure the safety of the local population.Two days later, on May 15, Putin passed the law expediting citizenship applications for Transnistrian residents.The law allows residents over the age of 18 to obtain Russian citizenship without proving their knowledge of the Russian language, Russian history, and Russian legislation, usually a strict requirement.

They will also be exempt from the requirement to have lived in Russia for five years before their application.Sandu definitely reacted to the news.Putin's decree says the decision was made, in order to protect the rights and freedoms of individuals and citizens guided by the generally recognized principles and norms of international law.Sandu rejects this outright.She claims instead that the Kremlin is attempting to carry out a hidden mobilization of the local population to boost its forces in Russia's full -scale invasion of Ukraine.She also claims that Moscow is using the passport policy to exert political pressure on Chisinau as Moldova moves forward with plans to reintegrate the region.

And she states confidently that it's not going to work, because the vast majority of Transnistrians want to be Moldovan and join the EU.In a wide -ranging interview with RFIDW, she said, I believe those who wanted Russian citizenship probably got it in the past, but I also don't see why people would want Russian citizenship these days.On the contrary, many people who did not have Moldovan passports have now obtained them.People want to be EU citizens, not Russian citizens." She had told a security conference in Tallinn, Estonia a few days before that since the war in Ukraine began, most of the people from the region took their Moldovan citizenship because they felt safer to have the citizenship of the Republic of Moldova and not the citizenship of Russia.So do the facts back her up.

Well, Moldova allows dual citizenship, as does Transnistria.Transnistria issues a passport of its own, but outside of Abkhazia.and South Ossetia, two fellow unrecognized breakaway regions in Georgia, no one recognizes it, not even Russia.So for Transnistrians wishing to travel beyond their borders, dual citizenship is a must.According to the 2015 census, some 475 ,000 people live in the region, with at least 358 ,000 possessing Moldovan citizenship.Around 220 ,000 have Russian citizenship, and a further 100 ,000 or so have Ukrainian citizenship.

So simple maths tells us that many have two or more passports.It's certainly true that applications for Moldovan passports from left -bank residents are on the rise, and Sandu is almost certainly correct in her assertion that the pull of EU membership is a major factor.More than 2 ,000 residents applied for Moldovan passports in 2025, a 50 % increase from 2024.But looking a bit further back, between 2022 and 2023, the government reported 38 ,040 passports had been issued, suggesting a significant drop off of late.Official statistics also tell us that the vast majority of those with Moldovan citizenship received it before the war in Ukraine started, not after.While it's certainly true that 2022 and 23 saw a surge in applications, 330 ,538 residents, well over 90 % of the current total, had already received their Moldovan passports by the end of 2020.

Now, to be fair, without wishing to diminish the alarming escalation this fast -tracked citizenship move represents, there's an element of farce about the whole affair.Romania has long offered expedited citizenship to Moldovans based on shared history and ancestry.The ruling is comparable in effect, if not geopolitical intent, to Russia's law for Transnistrians.Under Article 11 of Romanian law, Moldovans who can prove descent from Romanian or Bessarabian citizens, especially those who lived in the region before 1940, are eligible for simplified Romanian citizenship.This process typically takes two to three years, with exemptions from residency and language requirements for many applicants.That's a significant win for successful applicants.

Without the proof of descent, Moldovan applicants would need to permanently reside in Romania for eight years and pass tests on the Romanian language and norms of national culture, among other requirements.This policy allows Moldovans to gain EU citizenship, enabling visa -free travel, work, and residence across the EU in a comparable way to how Russian citizenship offers Transnistrians the opportunity in Russia.Unsurprisingly, by 2024, hundreds of thousands of Moldovans, more than a third of the population, had obtained Romanian passports this way, including Sandu herself.Indeed, Sandu says she would vote for Moldova to be reunified with Romania if a referendum on the matter were to be held in her country.Moldova has already opted to unify with Romania a century ago, as we noted earlier.Ultimately, if the Transnistria issue can't be resolved, unification might be Moldova's best option for joining the EU.

Sandu would rather join the Union as a sovereign Moldova, but if that's not possible, unifying with Romania is a feasible plan B, as she told RFIDW.Well, we can join Romania in the European Union, and this is not only what we believe.Most people in Moldova support EU integration.There are also people who support unification with Romania.Right now, we are working hard to make Moldova part of the European Union, and we hope this scenario will work.If it does not, for one reason or another, of course we will consider other options.

The main objective is to preserve peace in Moldova and keep Moldova part of the free world.Time will tell how many Transnistrians will take Putin up on his offer, whether they end up fast -tracked into his meat grinder as Sandu suggests, and how Moldova's EU aspirations turn out.For now, the situation is clearly escalating rapidly.We'll be watching closely and unpacking the events as they happen, of course.In the meantime, while Moldova enjoys relative peace and security, things are flaring up across the planet.Check out this video about the five conflicts that could trigger World War 3 before the end of this year.

And thank you as always.for watching.