Tim Miller: MTG’s Exit Is a Bigger Problem Than Trump Thinks

Hey everybody, Tim O from the Bulwark here. I went on with Nicole today and we did the, what it all means a combo with regards to Marjorie Taylor green, um, and went a little deeper than I was able to on the pot of bill, um, earlier this morning. Uh, but a bunch has happened since the pot with bill, a bunch of negative for Trump. I thought Nicole was going to ask me about that.

She didn't. And so I get to talk to you guys about that. She didn't. And so I get to talk to you guys about it. Um, uh, here's what I think we're seeing across the board right now. And this does not mean that this is not reversible. It is doesn't mean that Trump's done. He isn't, but a trend is a trend. And for Trump, we are seeing a trend and it is L.

Well, shoot, shoot. Which way does an L look right to you guys? Like this. It is L after L after L after L after L. This has been the month of L's for Donald Trump. Let's run through it all.

The elections. First week, 2025 in Virginia and New Jersey. He knew he was going to lose them. He lost them by much greater margins than I think even Democrats expected. Um, the shutdown message war, sorry to be right about this, but that was a big L for Donald Trump.

Um, how do you know it was a big L for Donald Trump? Like they are still splashing around trying to find a message on health care. I mean, like, just today, there was a bunch of news where Donald Trump was saying that he was wanting to extend the Obamacare subsidies. The House Republicans don't like that. Senate Republicans don't like that.

They're going to make an announcement today. They're backing it down. It seems like we're still two weeks away from a health care plan for Donald Trump

for the 10th straight year. So. You know, Democrats raised the salience to this issue.

Voters are upset about the increasing healthcare premiums. They're seeing Donald Trump has no message. The messaging war over the shutdown was an L for Donald Trump. Maybe a little bit of an L for all of you who said I was wrong when I said the Democrats won the shutdown. Let's keep going. Epstein. Obviously the Epstein discharge possession was an L for Donald Trump.

And then the other thing that I haven't been able to talk about today because it happened after I taped the pod, Lindsey Halligan. Lindsey Lindsay L is for Lindsay. Look at that. That was just a coincidence. L is for Lindsay Halligan. Um, and a judge dismissed, uh, both of the cases, uh, against his James and James

Comey, um, where, you know, Donald Trump was trying to get, you know, trying to get Pam Bondi to target his political foes. Pam Bondi couldn't find prosecutors to do it. She put Lindsey Halligan in place. Um, she did so illegally it turns out, and now those cases have been thrown out. L L.

So, you know, when it comes to the targeting political foes, when it comes to the campaign politics, when it comes to Capitol Hill politics, when it comes to the targeting political foes, when it comes to the campaign politics, when it comes to Capitol Hill politics, when it comes to Epstein, like Donald Trump is just taking Ls all across the board and that gets us back to Marjorie Taylor Greene. And at some level Marjorie Taylor Greene leaving instead of continuing to fight him is a benefit for Donald Trump. But the fallout from that, the fallout from the Marjorie Taylor Greene, and we did get to talk about this with Bill today, the fallout from that is other Republicans on the Hill being like,

we might leave too, she's right. And if more Republicans leave and resign, then the Republican majority is even in threat in 2026. I don't think that'll actually happen where they lose the majority because they have so many retirements before the midterms happen. But as I get in tune with Nicole, all the Republicans on the Hill see the writing on the wall. And so in that sense, Marjorie Taylor Greene leaving is the latest L

for Donald Trump. Stick around for more details on that with me and Nicole and some of our other friends. And subscribe to the feed right here. We'll be back later tonight and tomorrow

with much, much more. Tim Miller, your thoughts on this moment for Donald Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Sure, look, you laid out nicely in the beginning how this is similar to how some have, you know, in the Republican Party have spoken out against Trump and then retired in the past. And we're seeing that trend continue, which at some level shows that he still, you know, has a hold over the party. I think the

element that's different, that is most interesting, is the language that she used in stepping aside. And, you know, I'll leave it to Greg through his reporting and to psychologists to, like, determine what is happening in her brain and how serious she is about this and what exactly motivating it, but it just taking the language at face value. She is basically saying that I wanted to do work on behalf of the MAGA base that Donald Trump had promised you know he was going to work for and I couldn't do it because Congress was never in session and

because the elites within the party you know have succumbed to you know the influence game of Washington to the deep state to the tech elites right like that's essentially her argument her that you know you always heard from the populace from the mega populace one common critique was that there was this unit party in Washington Democrats or Republicans might disagree on certain issues but at the end they were on the side of the rich, they were on the side of the you know military and

the security state and and they were on the side of corporations they weren't on the side of you. Well now Marjorie Taylor Greene is saying that's Donald Trump you know he had promised you that he was gonna be be different, he's an outsider that was going to go after those institutions, but he's been co-opted by them and he likes partying with them. So she didn't use him by name, but like in the statement that's very clear what she's talking about. And that is powerful and that is very different from the other people that have separated from Donald Trump in the

past because she's coming at him from the place of his core base of support and his core strength. And if even 5% of the Macca base agree with her, if more do, you know, even better, but like if even 5% or 10% agree with her, that is crippling to Donald Trump's power. That is the first time that he would actually lose the people that that powered his rise. And so in that sense, I think it was a powerful resignation statement I think probably more powerful she was making that argument from within the

halls of Congress but the interesting thing to be watched will be if other people start to to echo that message Tim are we burying the lead here she speaks

about it as a foregone conclusion that Democrats take over the House and that Trump is impeached. Well the impeachment would end up being a I think

a political judgment by the Democrats but we probably are bearing the lead as far as a lot of Republicans on the Hill have already basically conceded the midterms. I know there's super interesting reporting today from Punchbowl DC which is kind of a Capitol Hill insider outlet and basically a number of Republicans were calling them after Marjorie Taylor Greene's letter came out saying essentially, I might not agree with her on all the particulars and she might have these, you know, various unique issues, but like the core of her argument

is correct. Like we are doing nothing. We are not serving people. We are about to be in the minority and I'm annoyed too. And essentially that was the message. There were a lot of that there will be maybe more Republican retirements coming because Republicans on the Hill see the writing on the wall that the Democrats are gonna win next year and and you know it's worth it to stay in Congress even if you're in the minority if you feel like you're fighting for something, if you feel like you're doing

something. And I think that a lot of Republicans on the Hill don't feel like they're doing anything. They're just ornamentation to Donald Trump's authoritarian takeover. And if it's going to be another one-year slog to their own defeat, well, then maybe others will follow her to the exit. That was what Punchbowl is reporting. And that, I think, seems like a reasonable assessment of where we are.

Things could change, obviously, but I think that things are looking very bad politically for the Republicans on the Hill.

I mean, Tim, I know we've had this conversation about Marjorie Taylor Greene, and you and I are sort of battered ex-Republicans who'll take anyone to come in the boat and row toward democracy that we can get, but David Frum is skeptical,

and I just wanna platform his critique. Gullible as Green was about crackpot theories and her political association, she seems to have been clear-eyed about her own direct personal interests. Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of the most active and successful stock traders in Congress. In a number of cases, betting for or against companies about which she likely had advance information.

She timed her resignation to take effect two days after her congressional pension vested. She's Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, only if the cinematic Mr. Smith had returned home to Montana, hugely enriched by timely speculations on land holdings near the boy ranger camp he championed. But she never did get the joke on the biggest joke in town. The joke that MAGA is about anything more than manipulation, exploitation, corruption, lust, and cruelty. She seems to have sincerely believed the lies that

Schruder players merely mouthed. She gained her own millions without appreciating that her allies were scheming for billions." What do you think? Fair? I think, well sure, it's a fair critique of

Marjorie Taylor Greene. She deserves to be critiqued. I guess the one place where I would part ways a little bit with David is that line that he says where, you know, that she was surprised that other people didn't believe what she sincerely believed. If that is true, that is important in itself, right? I mean she could be somewhat corrupt at a small scale compared to the Trumpian corruption, and she could be somewhat corrupt at a small scale compared to the Trumpian corruption and she could be conspiratorial and I'm sure opportunistic and all those things but it is telling that if somebody that earnestly believed

in the populist part of MAGA populism and was a genuine part of the movement I genuine to such a degree that like she was a MAGA conspiracy poster on Facebook before she went to Congress I mean like that that is as core of a MAGA as you could be right and she was like Trump or Trump back in the primary when everybody else was against. If somebody like that can go to Washington, be on the inside of a MAGA movement, look around and say we're not actually doing anything and you know

maybe I got a little bit of mine and maybe I also got some attention but I also believed this stuff I like I believe the populist right-wing stuff and none of you guys do that's important like that's important even if she is opportunistic you know that is important if she's also corrupt it's still like a very meaningful departure and and the fact that that it seems like me and David agree, she sincerely believed it, I think is why it's politically significant.

Tim, I want to come back to you on these sort of three pillars. You could build, in our campaign days, you could build an entire campaign around these three things that she said. The price of everything at the grocery store, the price of your electricity bills, and ACA premiums and then add on to it for good measure a business owner's perspective on the irrationality

and insanity of mass deportations. I mean, you have the current Democratic Party encapsulates all those policies, but I wonder where you think she's positioning herself in the Republican Party.

Yeah. Well, look, I think I agree with Molly as far as where she's positioning herself within the Republican Party? Yeah, well look, I think I agree with Molly as far as where she's positioning herself within the Republican Party. I think, I have no idea what she's planning for next, but I think that what she's trying to do is say, look, real mega-populism hasn't been tried, right? And that is gonna include some pretty crazy cultural and social views, and I

think that the same statement that I'm going to give some compliments to also decry the transing of people like using that as a verb and a derogatory way right so she and she has she remains to have some crazy views I think she also said that we should cut the capital gains tax for for people which is doesn't isn't very popular so you know it's a grab bag but uh... that the other the elements that are that i think are useful to learn from uh... if you're a democrat or

that you tell us where she would be trying to differentiate herself within the republican coalition is saying look uh... were were i'm trying to focus on bread-and-butter issues economic populist issues about things and other things are costing too much for a regular people while rich people are doing well.

And I think that the Republican Party is focused too much on the wealthy, and the Democratic Party is focused too much on caring about these cultural mores, I'm going to be the person that's focused on you. person that's focused on you. I don't know that Marjorie Taylor Greene is going to be the vessel for that message, but