Trump CALLS BACK Iran Attack After Military DIRE WARNING

Good morning, everybody.Happy Tuesday.I have an amazing show for everybody today.What do we have, Krystal?

Indeed we do.So Trump is saying he postponed imminent Iran attacks.We will match what he's saying about it with some recent reporting and reality and where we may be headed in light of recent events.We're also going to dig into some new polling from The New York Times, Sienna.This has been one of the more, I would say, accurate pollsters over recent years and some truly dire numbers here for President Trump sinking to lows even in terms of you know, the context of this term or the first term for his popularity.So looking pretty grim there.

At the same time, he is stealing from taxpayers to create a new $1 .8 billion slush fund for his allies.So that's pretty interesting.AI is getting booed at commencement ceremonies across the country.We've got a nice little compilation for you there.Cars for Kids is apparently not at all what we thought it was.That's an interesting one.

And a congressional candidate, Chris Rabb, is going to join us.It's actually Election Day in Pennsylvania and a number of other states across the country.This Philly congressional district has been hotly contested.AIPAC has been funneling money in.There are three Democratic contenders, a very blue seat.So it's going to be whoever wins the Democratic nomination who ends up being the congressman there.

We've had Chris Rabb on once before, and so he is going to take a little bit of time out of his busy Election Day schedule to update us on the race and what he thinks is going on there.

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And then of course, if you're listening to this on a podcast, please share an episode with a friend.It really helps other people find the show and raise five stars if you're able to.Let's go ahead and start with this imminent attack on Iran.Let's go ahead and put this up here on the screen.This was from Donald Trump.I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar to hold off on our planned military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that in their opinion, as great leaders and allies, a deal will be made which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all countries in the Middle East and beyond.

This deal will include, importantly, No nuclear weapons for Iran.and the caveat proved correct.I do think, though, that one of the reasons why this was called off is in no way why Donald Trump is saying it.The truth is, the actual truth is about what's being said to Donald Trump inside of the White House Situation Room as he itches his way out of this escalation trap, because he's, you know,He can escalate or he can pull back.And with the escalation, though, comes the continued risk of all of the munitions depletion of all of the potential, you know, airmen getting shot down.

And I actually think that that latter part from this New York Times report is really important.It fits with everything that we've talked about here.So let's go and put a six, please, on the screen.So here is from a new excerpt from The New York Times.They say Iran has used the months long ceasefire with the United States to dig out scores of bomb ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and despite significant losses, adjust its tactics for any resumption of strikes.They say many of Iran's ballistic missiles were deployed from deep underground caves and carved out granite mountains.

As a result, the United States largely bombed the portals of the sites, collapsing and burying them, but not destroying them.They have now dug out a significant number.Iranian commanders, possibly with Russian help, studied the flight patterns of American fighter jets and bombers.The official warned that the downing of the F -15 jet last month and the ground fire that struck an F -35 revealed American flight tactics had become too predictable in ways that allowed Iran to defend them more capably.And most important, the military said that while five weeks of intensive bombing may have killed several Iranian leaders and commanders, the war has left a more hardened, resilient adversary.That is the actual fundamental truth that belies this entire thing.

And we were hearing this all the way up until the end of the war.In fact, I spoke with a couple of very knowledgeable military sources, and they pointed out a couple of things.Remember, when Trump was going all out against the Houthis last year, they were also able to clip an F -35.They shared some of that information with the Iranians.Because the United States was flying so many air missions, all you do is just sit there and study and study and study, and you learn exactly how to shoot them down.That's exactly how the F -15 pilot did it.

remember, was shot down.Let's remember that we also lost two air refueling tankers over Iraq.The official story is that something went wrong, not really what I heard.Eventually, I think that we will get the full story behind that.There have been multiple close calls and incidents of people who have been declaring mayday and will do an emergency landing.Again, the military continues to claim that in almost all those cases, they were accidents.

Again, just not the truth whenever we see people literally get shot down and some crazy rescue mission that has to be mounted.By the way, where are those pilots?How come we've never met?that he wrote.know there was gonna be an imminent attack that was planned and there's no deal that is necessarily in the works.As of last night, before any of this even happened, here's where things were.

A2, let's put it up here, this was the last official dispatch from Barak Ravid, Iran's new offer is insufficient, risks war resumption.That was the latest offer that was made behind the scenes.And at a certain point, Don't we all just need to stop denying the reality of these fake transmissions, which are allegedly happening behind the scenes?Like, I actually think almost all of this is playing out in public.From what I understand, the Iranians are so bewildered by the constant claims of them making offers that they haven't made, that many of the details of their offers and proposals get leaked almost immediately just to signposts ofthis is where we actually are.

To stop the United States or Trump from trying to twist from where things actually.So that's where things stand.Whether we were gonna attack, we didn't attack.He claims it was a gulf.Gulf says, I don't know what you're talking about.The Iranians say that the last, you know, thing that they transmitted is basically where they were.

I think that he basically got scared of what it would look like, but that does not mean that it will actually be forestalled.The other option is, since it is Taco Tuesday, after all, is that we wait until, oh, I don't know, Friday, whenever all of the markets close, and that's when things start to reset.

Yeah, well, I mean, that's the issue, is the fundamental dynamics have not changed.The status quo is a disaster.Iran's oil wells are not going to explode.We cannot withstand, and the global economy cannot withstand, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.So the status quo is not sustainable.Coming to some sort of a deal, Trump basically having to take and hold an L doesn't look like something he is ready to do or something that he is constitutionally capable of doing, even though that is unfortunately the best option that is available to him at this point.

from the bullets that have been released from the U .S.and from the bullets that have been released by the Iranians in terms of their negotiating positions, they don't have agreement on a single point.And they're, you know, light years away from each other on basically every really consequential point.So that seems really unlikely.And then you've got the other possibility, which is resumption of war, which yesterday looked very much like we were headed in that direction.

imminently before Trump put out this post.And I absolutely agree that what looks like happened here was not our allies coming in and being like, sir, we're so close to a deal.Let's just continue negotiating as, you know, as indicated by the fact they told The Wall Street Journal, we literally have no idea what he's talking about here, that he got more information from the military.They insisted to.him, this is not going to go well for you.And I also think it's really not whether you're talking about the whole pilot rescue thing and whatever happened there.

And we still really don't know why they were there over Iranian territory.To begin with, what the actual story is of what was happening, whether there were other plans that were laid there that they had to, you know, abandon or abort.But the fact remains that after After that rescue mission, that was basically the end of the active hostilities against Iran, of the bombing campaign against Iran.And I maintain that it's because whatever went down there, it was a wake -up call for Trump of how much of a disaster further bombing campaigns and certainly something like a ground invasion, some sort of escalatory move, could ultimately be for the U .S.is saying to him, look, these guys have learned.

It won't be like before.They will be able to continue to strike.They have most of their missile capabilities remaining, and they have gotten smarter about how to target our air assets.That, to me, lines up with the sequence of events that we have ultimately seen, and not whatever he says here about, oh, it was our allies that really begged us, and so I gave in.The other thing to say, though, is that that doesn't mean that we are out of the woods.because the options on the table are all still impossible.

And he's still going to have the Israelis pushing, he's still going to have the neocons pushing, and he's still going to have his own ego to protect.So even if the chances of achieving something on the battlefield that they, you know, with options that have failed in the past, even if the chances of achieving something on the battlefield are incredibly, incredibly slim, that in his mind may be a better bet than accepting the humiliation that would be required to do the deal that's on the table right now.

I mean, and if you see where Trump is, let's put A3, for example, this is what type of stuff he was saying yesterday.magnificent USA.The New York Times, the China Street Journal, corrupt and now irrelevant CNN, all members of the fake news media will headline that Iran had a masterful and brilliant victory over the United States of America.It wasn't even close.The Democrats and media have totally lost their way.They have absolutely gone crazy.

But I actually think this is a very important insight because It fits with the Trump interview out of the China summit, which he did with Fox News, where he basically said, look, I don't care that much about the, I don't care that much about the nuclear issue, but at this point, the media, you know, I need to show the media that I actually won.And I'm paraphrasing, obviously.That was the obvious insight into his psychology.And I think it's very important.He is just like LBJ.He is just like any of these others.

I don't want to be the first American president to lose a damn war.was, of course, has to save face of some kind, and he's drawn and put himself, think about already where we are.on day one of the war it was we have killed the ayatollah you need to rise up and take back your country and then it started moving you know more and then a total and complete surrender we want regime change that's what we want unconditional surrender they must give up all of their nuclear program to then we're negotiating literally with the same scions of the regime we have the ayatollah who we replaced with the son of the uh murdered ayatollah who we turned into a martyr and thenthey point out in the New York Times story, a more resilient command.It actually turns out.We killed all the old people who were kind of doddering and a little bit more risk averse, and that the new people, they don't even want this ceasefire.

Many of the senior members of the IRGC, they want to go back to war.That's why a lot of there's been, remember all those miscommunications where the diplomats would say one thing, the IRGC is like, nope, that's not true.They are not giving up control over the Straits of Hormuz.They are definitely not going to give in on a lot of the things that the administration wants, you know, in terms of sanctions relief.Don't forget yesterday, Iran launched a new portal for Bitcoin transactions.on the Straits of Hormuz with a toll system and a way to make payment.

We don't yet know how many people are taking advantage of that.And all the while, you know, the U .S.gas price continues to tick up.We're at $4 .53 a gallon, $5 .65 a gallon in terms of diesel.And it's just, it's not going anywhere as long as the Strait remains closed.

And especially with all these will they, won't they, in terms of the oil markets, that will swing things plus or minus 5%.We are still up 80 % from when the war began.That's the flat truth.There's just no getting out of it.

Yeah, that's absolutely right.And let's put A5 up on the screen because I think this is another indication of the failure of our strategy.So this is Treasury Secretary Scott Besant saying the U .S.Treasury is issuing a temporary 30 -day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea.This extension will provide additional flexibility, will work with these nations, provide specific licenses as needed.

This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market, ensure oil reaches the most energy vulnerable countries, will also help reroute existing supply to countries most in need by reducing China's ability to stockpile discounted oil.What does this tell you?It tells you that the notion that our vulnerable countriesof the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would put more pressure on Iran than it put on us and the rest of the world was not true.We are already trying to find little ways to try to control the price of oil so it doesn't get even more out of control because we cannot take the pain.When you say we're issuing these waivers to lift the sanctions in these limited ways, what you're doing is actually adding more oil into the market.

It's a global market.That is the idea is to try to keep the price under control.Now, I don't know if this will be sufficient to keep things from continuing to spiral as it increasingly becomes clear we're nowhere close to making any sort of a deal.But to me, it's an indication that this is not going at all the way that Trump had been told by the neocons it would go, that Iran would collapse, that this would be devastating economically for them.Instead, we're the ones who were already showing weakness and vulnerability as a result of our own strategy here.And then, you know, we really need to do some segments on what's going on with Russia and Ukraine because there have been a lot of changes there in that war, a lot of changes in the dynamics in that war.

But, you know, Ukraine has actually been holding the front line and making things difficult for Russia because of the advent of drones and their effective use of drones has made it so they've been able to compensate somewhat for the fact that they don't have sufficient manpower.So that has made things more difficult for Russia to be able to succeed, you know, in the in the way that they want to and score an outright victory.At the same time, because of our war on Iran, Russia is now making more money, which is helping to stabilize them because they're, you know, able to sell their oil at a premium.So this has been very beneficial to them in terms of their economy and their war effort.So, you know, this being just one more indication of the way that this has not gone awry.the way that Trump imagined that it might and the way that he was sold on from the neocons who are interested in this war.

A hundred percent.

That's very important.Yeah.If you're one of these neocons who supports the war with Iran, you just bailed out Russia.You gave them a huge license.They're going to print billions off of these transactions.India, I'm sure, will be buying it tomorrow, you know, because a lot of it is at sea, which has already been sanctioned and it could just sail to port.

They can offload they can sell and nobody has to worry about any U .S.sanctions.So, look, I mean, that's where things stand as of right now with Iran.There doesn't seem to be any counterproposal, any reality of some sort of a deal.I did just see some Israeli report that maybe it could all be a, it could all be a, you know, a distraction and the strikes would continue.

I wouldn't put it past them.I just think, though, that When you fit it with the market, the fact is you have this taco Tuesday, which, you know, it's been a long, long held strategy, especially because The market went down yesterday.Oil was up a little bit.So Trump reacts.Then he has a couple of days.Then there could be a potential tantrum on Friday.

And then we're right back to where we were.And maybe he'll say it was a one -time strike and that then they need to come to the table.Who knows whether any of that is true.But it does fit, by the way, with the report that we gave yesterday, really validates Trita Parsi, him saying, look, Iran fully believes the war is going back on in 48 hours.And they were right, at least from Trump's own psychology.That's what we know so far.

Okay, let's get to polling.