Trump will lash out when he knows he's failed — Hegseth's days are now numbered | Richard Shirreff

It is this American fixation of take out the top guy and you change the regime.It doesn't work like that.The IRGC is in control and all their power is being cemented by the continued prolongation of this war.

Hello and welcome to the Trump Report.I'm Maddie Hale.We've got a lot to discuss today because we've got President Zelensky and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington to meet with Donald Trump today, so there's a lot to discuss.Now, my guest today is General Sir Richard Sherriff, NATO's former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe.Richard, thank you so much for joining the show.

Thank you, Maddie, and always good to be with you.

We'll start off with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.He has arrived in Washington, D .C.for his meeting with President Trump, where he says that his number one priority will be this anti -ballistic defense and strategic cooperation with America.He's essentially going there to ask for more Patriot defense batteries, more Patriot defense interceptor missiles to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles and U .S.

support in general to manufacture those interceptors inside Ukraine.But Richard, while there is a question looming over whether whether Trump will support Ukraine in this meeting and beyond.The main question is actually whether the United States really has enough to even give them.So do you see Zelensky walking away with something today?

Not concrete.No, I don't think, I don't think, I think that's highly unlikely.I think part of it is, is absolutely, as you say, that the, the US have used up so much of their missile stocks with their war in Iran, that Ukraine is absolutely on the hind teeth on this one and unlikely to get much to show for it.And we've seen the consequences of that with the relentless assault by Russia on Ukrainian cities, Kiev, et cetera, et cetera.We heard, of course, at the NATO summit that Trump was going to agree to license Ukraine to build Patriots.But that's not going to happen anytime soon.

That's the product of several years in the making.So I don't think you're going to get anything significant out of this.On the other hand, who knows?It might just be that because Ukraine is so clearly regaining the initiative over the Russians, that the Russians are in an increasingly difficult place.Maybe, just maybe, that will land with Trump and he might just get off that hook of supporting Putin come what may.But I wouldn't hold my breath about what's coming out of this meeting.

The Pentagon says that it will keep sending the remaining $400 million in military aid that was approved by Congress last year.But those deliveries are expected to be spread out right up until 2029.So I wonder how Zelensky can convince Trump that 2029 is just simply too late.And if, you know, concerns over U .S.weapons stockpile means that there really isn't enough air defence systems to send now.

I mean, where does that leave Ukraine?Because if the thing that Zelensky needs is, you know, unavailable.Where does that leave Kyiv?

Well, where does it leave Kyiv?I mean, it's a really important visit.Of course it is, because it's keeping the conversation going.And what you don't want, what the last thing Ukraine and Zelensky wants is for the US to cut them off, cut them off completely.The US is still providing targeting advice, which is critical to the Ukrainian effort.So that's part of the thing, to keep that conversation going, to keep persuading Trump that actually Ukraine is gaining the upper hand.

And as we've heard a million times before from those who know him, Trump likes a winner.And it may be that that dynamic can shift a bit.And if nothing else, it's getting Trump off the groundhog day of yet another attempt to force a capitulation deal down Zelensky's throat in support of Trump's friend, Putin.So that's good.If anything else comes out of it, that's a bonus as well.

Germany has committed to sending five Patriot systems, but says that safely it cannot give Ukraine any more.Is that enough to bridge the gap, do you think?

Well, again, I couldn't give you chapter and verse on that, Matt.It's better than nothing.But I think what this all highlights is the need, and it comes back again and again, to Europe stepping up to the mark.And Germany is doing its stuff in that sense.But the imperative must be for Europe defence industries to build and develop the sort of capabilities needed, not least long -range strategic missiles and anti -ballistic missiles like Patriot air defence systems.Now that's happening.

I mean, NBDA have built a very, very capable anti -ballistic missile system, the Astor 30, I think it's called.But they need to scale up and be able to be in a position to start giving those to Ukraine as well.So the main point is that Ukraine has got to depend on Europe for its military support.But the wider point, and I keep saying this again and again, I think I may have discussed it with you, is the need for some proper strategic thinking that says that there's only going to be a lasting ceasefire in this war when Russia's been defeated.And people have got to understand, that means defeat.It means victory.

It's the V word for Ukraine.And that is only going to happen when Ukraine's partners, NATO, Europe, more broadly, Australia, South Korea, Japan, get behind us.and design a strategy to support Ukraine achieve that.What does that strategy look like?It looks like military support.You've mentioned anti -aircraft missiles, anti -ballistic missile missiles and missile defence, of course.

It means long -range precision strike.It means a whole raft of capabilities.But it also means investing in Ukraine to allow Ukraine to scale up the extraordinary pace of innovation, drones, autonomous vehicles, and the like.It means support with mobilization ideas, how to build an army, how to scale an army.You've got a new commander -in -chief come in, Drapatchy, who's got some great ideas, some great thinking.But it's about giving Ukraine what it really needs, as well as economic and financial measures to fundamentally damage and take down the Russian economy and so damage Putin's position.

Because all of this is going to be needed if we're going to see a lasting ceasefire.

If tensions flare up with Iran again, and while Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine, does the United States actually have the military capacity to lead both theatres simultaneously?

I think that must be open to doubt.I mean, the scale of usage of weaponry over Iran in the early days, what is it, what is it, what we heard, what in the first four days, America used four times the amount of Patriot missile, Patriot missiles than it had given to Ukraine.That's got to be open to doubt.Now, it all depends on what we mean by scaling up.And Iran, I mean, turning to Iran, There's no question that President Trump has got himself into a real fix over Iran.He's got two options.

Does he scale up?Does he go for regime change?And that's probably what he'll do.of the things that Netanyahu wants to talk to him about when he's in Washington.Does he really double down on the regime?The only way regime change is going to happen is for America to invade Iran, Iraq -style 2003.

And the mind boggles at that, because that is going to need I don't know, three quarters of a million, a million troops to do it.It's a process of years in the taking.Or is it a landing on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz?Again, the sort of things we were talking about several months ago.Because at the end of the day, the Iranians have got the Americans over a barrel over the Strait of Hormuz, nothing has changed.And bombing doesn't change the equation at all.

So Trump has backed off for the moment, thinking the Iranians might be ready to sign an agreement, but it's not going to happen.So coming back to the main question, if America decided to really double down and scale up along the lines I've spoken to, well, that's all bets off for any other American effort anywhere.

Well, before we move on, I want to get your thoughts on, I want to kind of continue with these thoughts on the U .S.weapons stockpile, because retired Major General Randy Manor, he was on CNN and he was warning the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's days are numbered, blaming him for depleting America's stockpiles by using, you know, multi -million dollar missiles to shoot down relatively cheap made drones.So, Manor said that Hegseth is not a strategist, accused him of focusing on this testosterone screening instead of national security.argue that the Pentagon has basically failed to learn from Ukraine's use of these low -cost air defences.Now, aside from the fact that there is apparently discussions on whether the US will ask Ukraine for their drone strategy, drone manufacturing, I mean, what are your thoughts on this?

Because Trumpyou know, notoriously will want to find someone to blame and it might end up being Pete Hegseth.

Well, firstly, he's right.Hexer is not a strategist, and nor is Trump.And you can see that by the way they've launched this war in Iran without any clear strategy, no idea how it's going to end, and no clear aim or end state, and no strategy to get to it as well.So he's right on that score.And Trump must at some stage lash out when he realizes that he's failed.But we've got to get to that point in the first place.

And again, we're so far away from that.What seems to happen is it's a sort of a continued groundhog day.And if insanity, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and hoping to achieve a different result, well, there's no question that Trump is pretty insane as far as Iran is concerned.So I don't know where this thing's going to go.

Richard, for the first time, Ukraine has attacked an Iranian ship that was carrying drone and missile parts to Russia.Iran, of course, threatened retaliation, but Keefe said that Tehran is a direct accomplice in this war.I wonder when Zelensky is approaching his meeting with Trump, whether this will hurt or help him?

It's a really interesting one.I heard this, this Iranian ship carrying missiles in the Caspian Sea being targeted by Ukraine.I mean, a brilliant piece of work by Ukraine, and you just want to take your hat off to them on the face of it.that is striking Iran, which is America's enemy, and therefore America should be saying, my enemy's enemy is my friend.I don't think it works like that with Trump because I've also heard that there's a lot of nervousness in the American administration about that.targeting of an Iranian ship.

There shouldn't be.And what that demonstrates to me, I'm afraid, is that the American administration is still thinking of Putin as a friend and doesn't want to see anything happen which strikes at Putin.So that really, in a sense, is an indicator.But the Americans should be delighted, frankly, with the Ukrainians hitting the Iranians.It also demonstrates something we've known for some time.You know, Trump is trying to keep these wars separate.

You can't keep them separate.The fact is that America, that Iran has been supported by Russia, that missile stocks, drone stocks have been going the other way in the Caspian Sea to support the Iranians, and targeting information as well has been given to the Iranians by the Russians to help the Russians, the Iranians strike at American bases.So again, coming back to your earlier point about strategy, the Americans need, and particularly Trump and Hegseth, need to start thinking strategically.One other point, though, I would say, and I didn't really touch on it when we talked about it, America using highly expensive, massively expensive missiles to take down cheap drones.Yeah, absolutely, on the face of it.But again, you know, the American Armed Forces is a very capable learning organisation.

absent Trump, absent Hegseth, and I would also absent General Kane at the very top, they will be learning from the way the Ukrainians are doing business.They will be studying that And I would not put it past, I would expect them to go into what they call fast follow, which is you, you know, which is what you do in business with somebody innovating, you let them do all the difficult stuff.And then when they've got the mix, right, the formula, right, you then follow up and overtake them and compete.And I've heard it, you know, for example, the Americans are talking about setting upan unmanned system force along the Ukrainian lines and the like because they've been watching Ukraine.So, you know, the lessons of this war will not have been lost on the Americans, although clearly they're being lost on the American political leadership.

I mean, yeah, because when I read the story this morning, Richard, as you're saying, I was just thinking, you know, Ukraine has just basically done the United States' dirty work for them and they should be thanking them for taking out an Iranian ship that was quite literally carrying drones and missile parts to Russia.But you mentioned what, you know, the United States has been providing intelligence to Ukraine for a number of years and Ukraine is adamant, Zelensky is adamant, that Russia has been helping Iran target US military bases.We know that a number of them have been attacked, Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, but Zelensky, he's still adamant that Moscow is sharing satellite imagery of American military sites with Tehran.Trump played down these allegations when reporters asked him about it.He said that he doubts that Russia has provided significant help and that even if it did, it hasn't had much impact, which is a bizarre thing to say given that four service members were killed last week.How likely is it, do you think, that Russia is blatantly providing Iran with intelligence?

I mean, we've just seen that Ukraine has...

I think there's no doubt about it.I'm absolutely sure that Russia is providing Iran with targeting information and that targeting information has been used to strike at American bases and caused American casualties.Of that, I think there's no doubt.But I think the Trump playing it down is all of Trump trying to play down the impact on America, back home on America.He described at home, he's describing this war as a skirmish in comparison with America's other wars.He's downplaying the number of casualties, which of course is not going to land well with

families of those unfortunate soldiers and servicemen and women who've been brought back in coffins, back in ceremonies, back to the US.But this is again all of a piece with the Trump approach, I think.

As we mentioned before, President Trump, he's doing a double whammy today.He will be meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu as well.Trump clearly wants diplomacy.He wants an off -ramp in this war, but Netanyahu wants to ensure that Iran remains under maximum pressure while also reportedly really wanting Trump's backing for him politically before his October elections.How do you see this meeting going, Richard, just knowing that one party potentially wants this to wind down and the other might want this to ramp up?

Well, firstly, I'm not sure your first party does necessarily want it to wind down or ramp down.They flip flop.Trump flip flops between fire and thunder and brimstone and talk of escalation.And then he backs off because he realises the reality of that is so ginormous.It is absolutely in Israel's interest to see Iran written down completely.So Netanyahu will be very likely, I think, doubling down on the need to strike and remove any potential nuclear threat.

I think he will be presenting Trump with intelligence that Iran has has recovered from the so -called obliteration of its nuclear capability last June and more recently, June 25 and more recently in this latest round.So he's going to be highlighting the threat to Iran.He's going to be saying that the only way Iran can be removed as a problem is regime change.And that is absolutely in Israel's interest.So he will be stirring up in order to try and get Trump to ramp up.And who knows, Trump may well listen to him or he may well say no.

We just don't know.He tends to lean on whoever's spoken to him last.

Well, on that note, The Times is reporting that the CIA and Israel's Mossad are conducting conducting an intense manhunt to find Iran's Supreme Leader, Mushtaba Khamenei, who hasn't been seen publicly for around five months after allegedly being quite injured, potentially had an amputation after these initial U .S.strikes on Iran.Intelligence agencies aren't 100 percent sure that he is alive.And if he is, then he's avoiding phones, he's avoiding the Internet.He's relying instead on these trusted, credible couriers to communicate for him, making it incredibly difficult to track him but if the US or Israeli intelligence does locate him will they try and target him just on the note of regime change?

Yeah, they will, absolutely.And that's why he's keeping his head down as much as he is.And who knows whether or not the stories about him being badly injured are true or not.It would be absolutely in Iran's interest to put out stories to say that he's effectively, you know, that he's been damaged.So again, I think all this is, you know, we don't know what we don't know.But what is certain is that the American and Israeli intelligence agencies will be doing everything in their power to track him down, and if they get eyes on or any way of attacking him, and we know how ingenious Mossad is at killing people, they will absolutely use the opportunity to take advantage of that and take him out.

Does that change the dynamic?I wonder, frankly, because I think the IRGC is very firmly in control in Iran, by all accounts, and I don't thinkthink you can, you know, it is this American fixation of take out the, you know, take out the top guy and you change the regime.It doesn't work like that.The IRGC is in control and the IRGC is being, you know, all their power is being cemented by the continued prolongation of this war.

And then on the flip side, Richard, an Iranian state -linked news agency has published this pretty graphic propaganda video titled, Where to Kill Melania.It encourages the assassination of Melania Trump.The video allegedly identifies locations that she visits in New York, suggests methods of attack and ends with a threat aimed at, you know, Barron Trump.I think he's around 20 years old.How seriously should we take a video like this?Is it propaganda or does it get treated as a credible security threat?

It's a credible security threat, but it's all part of the covert grey zone hybrid asymmetric approach to war, which the Iranians are waging, which we're trying to let the Russians wage as well.What it's designed to do is to destabilise, to induce fear, and to create a climate of uncertainty, and to get on the front foot in terms of the whole issue of strategic communications, cognitive warfare.So no, absolutely, and I'm certain that the American agencies will be taking that threat very seriously indeed.

And then, you know, I want to get your thoughts on this because this comes just days after the New York Times reported late last week that Trump, the reason why Trump switched from his Qatari gifted plane to the existing Air Force One back after the NATO summit was because US intelligence warned that Iranian proxy groups could target his aircraft because the Qatari plane reportedly did not yet have this classified missile defence systems fitted withTariq's Again, absolutely, I would expect that.

Of course, I would expect Iran to be targeting Trump.And if they can identify any chink in the armour, they will exploit it.So Trump's got to recognise that he's a target, that he's at war, he's launched a war against Iran.And he's now got to operate according to the permanent threat that Iran will be posing him.And more broadly, of course, coming in a sense coming back to the, you know, by assassinating the leader of that, by assassinating the, you know, Ayatollah Khomeini in the first place, what America did and Israel did was create a sheer martyr.And that demands vengeance.

And so, you know, that that that will continue to play out across the Islamic world.So, yeah, absolutely.I think you can assume that, you know, the Iranians will be doing everything they can to to target not only Melania, but also also Trump himself.

Just a final question, Richard.President Zelensky, as I mentioned, is in Washington for this meeting with Trump.He's also there for the funeral of the late Senator Lindsey Graham.He was one of Ukraine's strongest supporters and widely seen as having Trump's ear when it comes to the Ukraine -Russia war.Senate aides are saying that all 100 senators have been invited to meet with Zelensky today and that there is a chance the Senate could begin voting on Lindsey Graham's sanctions bill.This would impose 100 % tariffs on countries buying Russian goods.

It was originally 500 per cent.It's now 100 per cent.But around 85 of 100 of these senators had already co -sponsored this bill.It was meant to be passed last year.I think it was introduced in April 2025.But now that Lindsey Graham has passed, a number of senators are saying we need to honour him and pass this.

But I mean, I guess how significant do you think this would be for the it to sign this in the presence of President Zelensky and on the day of Lindsey Graham's funeral?

Oh, really powerful.It would be absolutely great.And it goes back to the point I made earlier about the need to target Russia economically.And this would go straight to the heart of that line of operation in a strategy, but it's got to be brought together.But no, it would be really important.It would send a really powerful signal.

And it would send a powerful signal, even if Zelensky's not going to get Trump support.He's got the support of the Senate.So let's hope something comes of it.

So, General Richard Sheriff, thank you so much for joining The Trump Report today.

Thank you very much for having me, Maddie.Always good to talk to you.