What Nancy Guthrie abductor wanted, according to renowned FBI profiler - day 31 on the scene

Hey guys, thanks so much for checking out my show. I really, really appreciate it. Please click to subscribe. I'm outside the Pima County Sheriff's Office in Tucson. These are all their SWAT trucks out here. It is day 31 in the search for Nancy Guthrie. Some big developments today. First of all, the sheriff has now spoken out again, given an update on the case, says that he does believe they will solve it, but made a comment about how they are looking at hundreds of thousands of cars to determine what vehicle could be involved in the case, which is a huge number that kind of surprised me.

I'll get into the latest on what the sheriff has said. Also, there was some action outside Nancy Guthrie's house. We don't know who these people were, but they showed up. They were really focused on the front doorway of the house. They went around the backside of the house at one point. I'll give you the latest on that. Also some people, just private citizens, searching.

There was someone with a metal detector. And then in this episode, and this is really interesting, I spoke with a retired FBI profiler who has a really, really interesting take on who may have done this and what the abductor wanted and wants

and continues to want in his opinion based on everything that he knows about the case. So I'm gonna get into all of that in this episode of Brian Enten Investments. Hey guys, so it is Tuesday, again day 31. I'm at the Sheriff's office. The search continues for Nancy Guthrie. I can't believe it's been 31 days now. It's like, in some ways, it feels like time has flown since I've came to Arizona and sometimes it seems like time is moving

so slowly. And I think everybody who's been following this case hoped that we would be sort of in a different spot by now but here we are. The sheriff, Chris Nanos, did an interview with NBC News and again I'm always kind of interested when he talks to NBC just because obviously NBC, that's where Savannah Guthrie works so it's kind of an interesting dynamic there I think. I've tried to get an interview with him recently and I haven't really gotten anywhere, but

in the interview with NBC, he did say a couple of things that I thought were interesting. He said that, I think the investigators are definitely getting closer to finding a Nancy Guthrie suspect. I mean, he's kind of been saying that all along. Whether that means they're getting closer, like closer, closer, or, you know, sort of more hypothetical closer, I don't know.

But I've told you guys this before, I don't think it's a cold case. I think it's going to be solved. Do I think it's going to be solved in the next couple of days? Not necessarily. But all it really takes is one tip. I mean, I saw that with Koberger.

It just, you know, one call and boom, you know, everything sort of changes. So he said, I think the investigators are definitely getting closer. He says, remember there was this video that from two and a half miles away where the car went by and the timing matched out really perfectly to someone who may have left Nancy Guthrie's and been trying to avoid major highways and intersections. We know that the Pima County Sheriff's Office now has that video.

And what the sheriff said about it is that they are looking into it. So it's part of the investigation. So he hasn't just completely thrown it out as nothing. But this is the part that really struck me. He said they are looking at, quote, hundreds of thousands of other vehicles which I mean it's a lot hundreds of thousands of other vehicles which may line up you may remember the FBI said a couple of days ago that agents are

reviewing thousands of hours of video and when they said that I immediately thought this can't be like a ring camera video because there's just not that much in the in the neighborhood and there wouldn't be thousands of hours so they likely now have traffic cameras that they're going through and looking at every single vehicle. That's sort of how I'm piecing this together, based on the FBI saying that their agents are reviewing thousands of hours of video and now the sheriff making this comment that

they are looking at hundreds of thousands of cars. But that was just kind of, you know, took me by surprise that there's that many. He says that the backpack may not have been purchased at Walmart, could have been purchased secondhand. Remember when he said that the backpack came from Walmart? I guess now they may have, at this point, gone through all of the sales records, which we know they were doing behind the scenes, the FBI.

And now he's saying it may have been purchased secondhand. So it may not have been purchased directly by the suspect from Walmart. Like maybe someone else purchased it and then gave it to the suspect or the suspect bought it like from someone,

you know, selling it secondhand. So I picked up on that. I thought that was interesting. And that means to me that they have probably finished going through all of the sales records in this area of Walmart to people who bought that backpack. And then he said, we have information on this case that we think is going to lead us to

solving this case, but it takes time, which is a positive statement. I think he may be referring to DNA there. I've reported to you guys, the DNA samples are not good, but that doesn't mean that with time they can't sort that out. And it could end up being DNA that cracks this case, especially the genetic genealogy. But again, that's going to take time, especially if the samples are not good samples.

So that's kind of what I think he was meaning by that last statement. We have information on this case that we think is going to lead us to solving this case, but it takes time. But we'll see. So that's the latest from the sheriff. He spoke out here at the sheriff's office. In terms of what's been happening in Nancy Guthrie's house, there were some people who showed up today. I don't think they were law enforcement, but I don't know who they were.

They were by the front door of the house. mission, knew what they were doing. Some people were thinking maybe they were locksmiths, which is a possibility, or just maybe people sent there by the family. I don't know. You know, the family, other people were there installing security cameras the other day. There was people there installing an alarm system. I don't know what these folks were up to, but they were at the house today, which was

interesting. At the same time, there were some people out in front of the house. I think they may have been, I don't know, private citizens. I also heard they may have been podcasters that were searching with a metal detector, said that they were searching for jewelry out front. But that was really the latest happening at the house. Also, I've just had a conversation,

which I'm gonna play for you with Jim Clemente, who is a retired FBI profiler. And it's always so interesting for me when I talk to these profilers, because this is what they do. With limited information, they come up with a profile of who they believe is a suspect in a case.

And this is one of the more interesting conversations I've had since this whole thing started, because he really zeroed in on what the abductor may want out of this, what he believes the abductor wants, which isn't something that I had really put a ton of thought into, which he's going to explain his theory on that, and also why he thinks those ransom notes in the beginning

may be bogus. So this is my conversation with Jim. All right. So I'm joined now by Jim Clemente, former retired FBI profiler, and also host of the podcast, Best Case, Worst Case. I almost said former FBI profiler,

but whenever I say that, people think that like they got fired or something. So I'm clear about saying retired. Maureen got mad at me about that once.

Yeah, I did retire and I'm still a profiler. So I'm continuing to do that work. I'm also an expert witness in legal cases. So I definitely continue to do behavioral analysis in criminal and related cases.

So Jim, I'm here in Arizona. I've been here for like a month, just trying to dive into this case any way that I can. And I wish I had more information a month in, but it's still very mysterious. There's still a lot we don't know.

There's still a lot of questions about motive. I mean, based on everything you know, have you been able to come up with a profile at all for who did this to Nancy?

Yeah, as I said earlier, we've talked before, the fact that someone would take the risk of going into an occupied dwelling, spending 41 minutes or so there, and then taking the victim with them. That's a huge risk.

All three of those things elevate the offender's risk tremendously. See, risk level is in opposition between the victim and the offender. So when the victim is in their lowest risk area, which is in the privacy and security of their own home,

to get to them, the offender has to take the highest level of risk. So we know this person was very motivated. They'd have to be so motivated in order to overcome that great risk that they took. Now, up until the door cam video was released,

it seemed like this person was a fairly sophisticated, criminally and forensically experienced kind of offender. But when we actually saw his behavior, we could see that he wasn't at all ready for that door camera, that he went out, he was not ready to go in, he was not ready to go out, and he was not ready to go in. offender, but when we actually saw his behavior, we could see that he wasn't at

all ready for that door camera, that he went out, walked out of the vestibule area and grabbed some brush to try to cover it, and in the process he revealed that, I believe, he has a tattoo on the underside of his right wrist. Those are all really big mistakes for somebody who took the time to wear at least one mask, maybe two, at least one pair of gloves, maybe two, a full bodysuit over his other clothing. He thought he

was actually protecting himself forensically, but what he didn't do is actually cover up his mouth. So he's breathing out DNA for 41 minutes in that house. He also, his eyes and his eyebrows and his eyelashes and some of his mustache hair was all exposed that that could have fallen out and been left at the crime scene. So he made a lot of mistakes that,

that really lower his criminal and forensic sophistication. So what does that tell us? Well, we know he's a male from the images and generally the way he moved, he didn't seem like he was in his 50s or 60s, but he was probably in his 30s or 40s. And he definitely, because he wasn't a professional, he definitely exhibited pre and post-defense behavior that people around him can see. So profiling doesn't just sort of predict who the person is, but we also talk about their behavior and what they'll do.

So before this event, he was experiencing some level of stress because he was planning this. Clearly, the way he dressed and the fact that he got away with it to date tells me that he did put in some level of planning.

Of course, he wore a backpack with bright reflective straps, bands on the strap, which, you know, and he was wearing lighter clothing, which you don't wear to a night operation. I mean, you want to be as unseen as possible, and he was glaringly there. He had a little flashlight in his mouth at some point, but if he had had a searchlight, a very strong flashlight,

he could have overwhelmed that camera, and it would not have picked up his image. He thought he destroyed the camera and the images it took. In fact, he didn't. So those mistakes again lower his assessment of his forensic and criminal sophistication. But because he's not so sophisticated, he was probably going through a lot of stress

beforehand and he may have even spoken to people about it. He may have vented to people about how things are going wrong or there's a lot of problems, but things are about to happen in my favor, things are about to get good, I'm about to, you know, all my problems are gonna be solved, I'm gonna be out of debt, whatever it is, I believe he spoke to people around him about this stuff. And then, after the event, and when when Savannah Guthrie announced that she was going to pay the ransom, he may have even slipped

again and spoken about, yeah, things are going to get better. But then when his images were released, I think that was, what was it, 10 days after the event, his stress level went through the roof. And he may have left town, he may have hidden his car in a garage or had worked on it or had it painted. He may be obsessively cleaning it. But these behaviors are out of the norm and people around him will notice the change in

these behaviors. One thing that my friend Jim Fitz and Ray Carr added to that behavior and I think it really makes sense when they profiled him was that this guy probably has had a history of being fixated on celebrities or quasi-celebrities in the past, probably female celebrities, and this could be one of the main motivating factors in this case. But I will say this, if that isn't it,

if it isn't sort of somebody who's fixated on her because she's the mother of a celebrity and in her own right has been on TV several times with her daughter. If it's not that, then I believe it's somebody who had some tangential connection to the family

or to Nancy Guthrie herself. And in that connection, and it could have been a guy working on the pool, the yard, cutting the grass, repairing the roof, doing some repairs to appliances in the house or the AC or the heat, and even possibly deliveries or driving an Uber.

There's some connection in which, and even possibly deliveries or driving an Uber. There's some connection in which innocently she revealed that one, she lived alone and that she would be home and vulnerable on this particular night. And it's a shame because her trust in any of these people could have led to her being targeted by this particular offender.

If it was a Savannah-obsessed person, would they have tried to reach out to Savannah by now or wanted something from Savannah?

Well, they did get something they wanted from Savannah. They got Savannah to talk to them directly. And another thing they got was an emotional reaction by her. And unfortunately, when you have, for example, erotomatic stalkers, they feel that they have this relationship with their victims and they feel sometimes that, well, if I can't have you, nobody can have you and they can get violent.

And it could be that that had some... motivation in this case.

So even getting the emotional responses from Savannah that we've seen could have been enough? It's not like they would have wanted more?

Oh, they may have wanted more, but it is a huge amount to be addressed directly by the person that you've been fixated on.

Yeah, that's a big thing. Wow. So I've heard a lot of people think that that's what it is. I've also heard like burglary gone wrong, you know, and then Nancy, hopefully this isn't true, but dies,

and you know, you got to get rid of the body or you're going to be in trouble. No, that's not true at all. You don't got to get rid of the body. You got to leave the body there and you got to get away from the body. If that's what happened, that person, unless they had a known connection to her or that location or both, that person would have left her there and gone as fast as they possibly can. get as far away as possible.

You don't bring the body with you. That is the best evidence in the case. And to keep that with you, to take it somewhere else, to then spend more time hiding it, you're putting their DNA in your vehicle, you're putting their DNA all over you.

It increases the risk that this offender took exponentially The only reason why you would want there are two reasons why you want to remove the body One that's what you came to do. You came to kidnap this person. You're gonna find them and you're going to take them away to People know and you're going to take them away. Two, people know that you have a connection to her.

You want to delay discovery of her because there's evidence of you on her. And so that is why you take the body away. You make that extra effort. You take that extra risk because there is a known connection.

So if it was just a random burglary, you think they would have just left the body? If she died, why would they take the body?

Absolutely. No question. I mean, it would be extremely foolish for them to continue to make risky moves. To what end? If she died, and there's evidence that there was a death in the house, what does taking the body away due for you. She's gonna get discovered or she's gonna be discovered missing. Either one, the alarms go off and they're looking for you. If you got in and out and instead of spending 41 minutes there, you spent 3

minutes there and took off, you know, you have 38 more minutes to be 38 more miles away, right? Why would you take her with you? You're right there with the evidence against you.

I'm just thinking this through. If it is like a Savannah stalker, because I've always thought there was more than one person involved. But could it, maybe that would mean it is just one person, and maybe that would explain why we haven't had some other accomplice

trying to claim this one million dollar reward. I mean, maybe, could it just be one person involved?

Absolutely. Absolutely. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a Savannah stalker. It could be a Nancy stalker. Because again, even though her fame is not anywhere near as great as her daughter's, she has been on TV with her daughter.

And that's a level of celebrity that this person doesn't have. And unfortunately unfortunately some people get fixated on elderly women. It's not common, but it does happen.

Could one person have done that by themselves though? Gotten her away?

Absolutely. I mean, it's easier if, well, it's easy either way. If she's alive, you threaten her with that gun if she's not alive. I mean that guy Didn't look small. She's pretty small Be fairly easy for her him to Take her out

Do you think she was alive when she left the house? I mean, just based on what you know.

I don't have any reason to believe she was dead. I mean, the fact that blood is dripping as she's leaving probably is a good sign that she's alive or was alive at that time.

in something that wouldn't be dripping. Mm-hmm. Um... that have kind of just fizzled away, do you think those are real?

and the location of that watch was described accurately and that was the proof that they gave that they were legit. If that's the case, I don't know how that happens other than somebody inside telling them that because that was not something that was released to the public. So I think that has a level of legitimacy. The fact that they sort of fizzled away, I don't know what advice was given to the Guthrie family. I don't know whether they paid anything or whether they didn't pay anything, but there is certainly a policy in the FBI

and in law enforcement in general not to pay ransoms.

Do you think they should have offered the reward sooner? I mean, because reportedly Savannah wanted to and was told let's hold off on the million dollar reward initially. Would that have made a difference, do you think?

I don't know. I mean, the million dollar reward, if you put that out immediately, I'm sure the reason why they told her to hold off is because they didn't want 50,000 false tips people just trying to get that million dollars It's a lot of money. It's very unusual to have a Reward that high and it brings people out of the woodwork

Are you surprised we were at day 30? I am I am it's I

Mean it certainly doesn't bode well For Nancy and I just I Don't know what the forensic examination that was done initially at the house was but Pretty certain that this guy's DNA is all over that house and What I'm waiting for is for them to have developed a DNA profile done a forensic genetic genealogy search and

gotten to This guy's family and they're following hopefully following him to get some a cigarette a coke can Pizza crust that he discards so they can get his DNA and confirm

who it is. That's the best hope in this case. And that can take time, right? Yeah. So even though it's 30, because some people, I've heard some law enforcement experts say that they think it's becoming a cold case. Is it too soon to say that?

I mean a cold case is when all leads have been run to ground and there's no new leads. I don't think that's the case yet. I mean it's 30 days, not 30 years. Cases are being solved after 30 and 40 years. So, um, this case will be solved. I have no question in my mind about it because of that video and because of the fact that he wasn't forensically sophisticated enough to prevent any of his DNA from leaving

his body and being at that scene. I just hope they collected it.

The way you described him is, and let's just say it was someone who did it alone, because if it was a stalker type, maybe it was someone alone. Do they start to tell people about it at some point? Or do people like that keep it to themselves forever?

No, I think this guy is not a professional. And so I believe at some point, was probably prior, his pre-offense behavior was probably him. He probably leaked out information about this. In other words, mentioned Savannah, mentioned Nancy, mentioned that he was gonna go to Tucson, something.

He was not as sophisticated as he thought he was

and those kind of offenders slip up. And I'm sure he did either before the offense or after the offense if he doesn't get caught in a while then you might see exactly what you just said him kind of bragging about it in a way like maybe generically yeah you know I could have gotten away with that too, you know something like that But I'm telling you somebody somebody who's listening to this right now Somebody knows him they live or work with him or

live near him or Have interacted with him and he has just changed his behavior in the last five, six weeks and especially when those images were released. Whether he left town for an emergency or made sure that he would not be out in public for a while, he did something. He did something to change his behavior.

And anybody who knows him, who's around him, should pick up on that.

So we don't know officially that nothing was taken from the house. But that's kind of the sense, that there wasn't like some high value item missing. So I guess operating under that being true, so not really being a burglary, and then-

It could be a framed picture of her in Savannah. It could be some little something from the magnet on the refrigerator. It could be, you know, some little souvenir or trophy that he took. It doesn't have to be something of great value.

Is there any other motive that has come to your mind besides, you know, Savannah obsessed

person?

Well, I mean, money, revenge, personal cause, or sexual. Those are the motives that could be.

Do any of those others, I'm just, I mean, they don't seem to add up as much to me. I mean, I hate to even think about the sexual, but, you know, it's just the way the neighborhood is, it's just this random house in the middle of this neighborhood where everybody's spaced,

like why her if that was the case, you know, generally because that person worked at the house or delivered something to the house or delivered her to the house and knew that she lived alone, that's generally what happens, what precedes that kind of an attack. However, unless that was absolutely known, there's no reason for him to take her from that location.

Do you think at this point, just based on what you know, they have several people in mind? Or do you think they don't? Because I'll just tell you, I mean, we had a reporting a couple of weeks ago about them going to the gun stores with 40 names and faces, and initially I thought they did,

but now I'm wondering if they don't.

It's just whether or not I think it's a good idea to answer that question.

That's all.

Yeah, yeah, I understand. Did anything stand out to you as strange with the ransom letters?

Absolutely. In general, when someone kidnaps someone and their motivation is to get money. One of the first lines is, don't tell the police and no media. DC Snipers, for example, they had both of those, right? This case, instead of hiding what they were doing, they announced it to the world by sending it to the media. That's extremely unusual, but it may be telling us exactly what they wanted, which was making everybody in that neighborhood shiver with fear, or making Savannah

emotionally, you know, begging for her mother's life. That could be the motivation. Behavior tells you many times not just what somebody wants to do, but sort of it satisfies some kind of inner need for them. And I think sending it to the media where Savannah works, but to a local CBS affiliate and to TMZ, it made sure that the news got out there. The local CBS affiliate tells me that that person

may very well be from that area because they wanted that media outlet to be aware and to publicize it. So publicity is usually the last thing a kidnapper wants, and it's the first thing these people wanted, or this person wanted.

I really appreciate Jim for taking the time to talk with me. It's sort of a lot to think about there in terms of the why and the motive and what the person may want out of all of this and where Nancy Guthrie is now. But I'm going to stay on the case. Obviously, again, it's day 31. Today is Tuesday.

It's a hot day today in Arizona. It's interesting here, the weather. When you step into the shade it's like cool, but the minute you get back out into the sun it's so, so hot. And people are saying that the rattlesnakes come out soon, which is something that I'm like not used to being from Florida. We have pythons there and alligators obviously, but I'm like waiting for these rattlesnakes

to show up. But I really appreciate you guys for following along. I know it's been a long one, day 31 now, but I appreciate your interest in the case. Of course, at the end of the day, this is all about there being some kind of resolution, keeping the word out there, keeping the story alive. You saw Savannah Guthrie at the house yesterday. It was just so sad, her with her sister and her brother-in-law. I know I have a lot of new followers here that just kind of found me with Nancy Guthrie, but those of you who have followed me for a long time

with all the other cases I cover, and I mean this is what I'm always doing, you know, I just get really invested. And I know some of you have been like, oh, when are you going to go home? At some point I am going to have to go home, and I don't know when. I mean, maybe it'll be sooner than later. Just kind of have to follow my gut on that. But my gut right today at this moment is telling me to sort of stick around and not leave yet. So that's what I'm going to do. Appreciate you guys. Thanks for following along.

Appreciate you guys. Thanks for following along. And I'll talk to you guys later.