Will Russia launch a major offensive on Ukraine this summer?

So although the world is understandably being distracted by the Iran war these last few weeks, Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, that war continues apace.It is interesting that overnight, Russians conducted a massive strike against Ukraine, predominantly appears to be against the capital Kiev, using over 600 drones, 90 missiles, causing widespread devastation across the capital.One of the missiles that was used was the Oreshnik hypersonic missile.We haven't seen that used in Ukraine.Ukraine since January during an attack against Lviv.Away from these daily updates, what is actually happening in the war grand strategically at the moment?

Well, it is interesting that last month was the first month since about August of 2024 when Russia lost more territory than it actually gained.Now, that might seem significant, might even look like a turning point in the war.But actually, most military analysts believe it was because Russia is probably preparing for some big offensive later on this year.And if you're preparing for an offensive, you tend to mass your forces, pull them away from some of the outlining areas and focus them ready for a major push.

That would leave you slightly exposed on the flanks, and that might be why Ukraine has been able to make some advances over the last few weeks.The real question, of course, is where is this summer offensive going to happen?

Well, of course, I can't get inside President Putin's mind, but most likely the thorn in the side of Russia is the western corner of Donetsk, what these fortress cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk Why are they important?

Because if these were to fall, it opens the floodgates for Russian forces deep into Ukraine.It would be very difficult for Ukraine to stop them.And that's why Ukraine has reinforced these cities.Now, at face value, they don't look that difficult to take.But it is worth remembering that the cities of Bakhmut and Pokrovsk Both took Russian forces over a year to take them.So several years of more activity before Russia could actually take these cities.

And it might take even longer than that because the Russian forces have been held back by Ukrainian advances and the use of drone technology.

But what impact has the Iranian war had on the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Well, several things have actually benefited President Putin, one of which is the price of oil.Now, one of the central pillars of the European strategy against Russia has been to try to stop Russia selling its oil and thus creating revenues to fund the war.However, President Trump, in an effort to try to provide more oil into the global markets and reduce the price, removed some of the sanctions on Russian oil, something that the UK has always also The US traditionally provides lots of weapons through NATO for Ukraine, but after over 13 ,000 sorties in the Iran war, there's no doubt that America needs to increase the supply of weapons into its own stockpiles before it provides them into Ukraine.That will undoubtedly embolden President Putin.In addition to that, of course, the global energy crisis has undoubtedly distracted world leaders at more parochial issues rather than worrying about the Russian invasion.

But it hasn't all gone President Putin's way.The Ukrainians have been very effective at getting their defence industrial base spun up using innovation and technology to developtheir drones.probably at a faster rate than Russia is able to do so.Not only for the front line, but also they developed drones that go into the medium and long range as well, which means they're able to target deep within Russia.Almost certainly, that means it spreads Russian air defence systems much more thinly.

And the Ukrainian has been very effective at targeting chemical facilities, energy facilities, and also oil depots as well.

Another area where the Ukrainians have benefit is Western intelligence, because that provides eyes and ears over the battlefield, informs Ukraine or where Russian targets are, but also if Russian forces are massing for an offensive against Ukraine, that is also great warning.One of the assets that the UK uses to help Ukraine is the RC -135 Rivet Joint.This asset looks out over Ukraine, operating from international airspace, providing eyes and ears over the battlefield and provides invaluable support for Ukraine.Now the Russians know that the UK is doing this and that probably explains one of the reasons why recently Russians have sent up fighter jets to buzz the rivet joint aircraft.They can't do much about the rivet joint being there, but it demonstrates the frustration that Russians have about the UK's ability to conduct these missions.One of the areas, though, that is affecting both the Russians and also the Ukrainians, though, is the highly attritional nature of the war.

Both sides are struggling to keep the level of their manpower sustained to sustain this war of brutal attrition.So where does this leave us strategically in the war?Well, there's no doubt at all that the Russians' progress has been very slow these last few months.And in many areas, the front line has actually stalled.

Almost certainly, the Russians are going to plan a major offensive this summer for two objectives, one of which is to try and gain momentum in this war, but also is to test Ukrainian resolve.